Wednesday 26th Jun
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia markets: Australia inflation, semiconductor stocks jump
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/26/asia-markets-australia-inflation-singapore-factory-output.html
US stocks were mixed again in a reversal of fortunes for the major indices as the Nasdaq clawed back Monday's losses and Nvidia snapped its 3-day losing streak
NDX recoups recent losses amid NVDA snapback with Dollar rangebound ahead of risk events
MAG7 Melts-Up Amid Macro Malaise; Bonds Slop, Bitcoin Pops, Black Gold Drops
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bitcoin-bid-bonds-blah-amid-mixed-macro
MAIN MACRO DUE
Wednesday: New Home Sales
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/wednesday-new-home-sales.html
MAIN BONDS DUE
11:00: Norway to sell 1.5% 2026 bonds
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Russia's Belousov warns US defense minister Austin of dangers of escalation
Trump Peace Plan Will Withhold Weapons From Zelensky Unless He Agrees To Negotiate
Ukraine, Russia Complete Fifth Prisoner Swap This Year Via UAE
Ukraine starts EU accession talks
https://www.ft.com/content/43c26415-5efa-440a-b338-36aed2739b87
EU Formally Launches Membership Talks With Ukraine & Moldova
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-formally-launches-membership-talks-ukraine-moldova
Port Maintenance Drags Russia's Oil Shipments Down To Three-Month Low
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/port-maintenance-drags-russias-oil-shipments-down-three-month-low
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
Defense Secretary Austin Warns Israel-Hezbollah Clash Could Touch Off New War
US warns of Hizbollah ‘provocations’ as diplomats try to avert Israel-Lebanon war
https://www.ft.com/content/9119efdf-9771-48d0-8a51-99c72eed46a3
Israel's Netanyahu Does Have a Gaza Strategy: More War
Netanyahu's Wife Accuses Army Leaders Of Planning Coup
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netanyahus-wife-accuses-army-leaders-planning-coup
Iran Election: Who Will Succeed President Raisi, and How Will They Be Chosen?
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
Philippines warns of region-wide conflict over South China Sea reef dispute
https://www.ft.com/content/b159b5a6-ba06-401c-8585-bc71ad73a69f
A deepening stand-off in the South China Se
https://www.ft.com/content/e582469d-e366-4ab7-9ac0-5fb26998437b
Taiwan: rare sighting of mainland Chinese helicopter points to test of island defences
China dismisses western complaints over exports
https://www.ft.com/content/7e8d69d0-968b-4dec-bd5e-670e63916c4b
In Rare Rebuke, U.S. Ambassador Accuses China of Undermining Diplomacy
Presidential Race Deadlocked In National Polling
https://marketnews.com/presidential-race-deadlocked-in-national-polling
Donald Trump’s gag order partly lifted days before presidential debate
https://www.ft.com/content/2b0c4716-e346-427a-a425-33b1ffb44ce8
GLOBAL/GENERAL
Central banks urged to keep pace with ‘game changer’ AI
https://www.ft.com/content/ccecf5e1-4e49-4110-93d5-bcb627c59562
Taxing super-rich debate should start with 2% levy, says economist behind plan
Minimum tax on billionaires would raise up to $250bn a year, says report
https://www.ft.com/content/8e7adbe6-22c7-45c6-8b81-b2173240d78c
Finland to start bird flu vaccinations for humans, in world first
EUROPE
France Election: Bloomberg Poll of Polls Shows Le Pen Lead Widens
France’s Main Parties Clash on Economy, Immigration in TV Debate
Markets wake up to left-wing French election risk
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/markets-wake-up-left-wing-french-election-risk-2024-06-25/
Four Scenarios for France Amid Market Scrutiny
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-06-24/four-scenarios-for-france-amid-market-scrutiny
EU Summit: Germany Shuts Down Joint Debt Push for Defense and Other Projects
Italy Set to Get Key EU Role in Leaders’ Top Jobs Deal
STOXX 600 Earnings Outlook 24Q1
https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2024/06/stoxx-600-earnings-outlook-24q1-jun-25-2024/
UK
UK election betting scandal deepens as Labour suspends candidate
https://www.ft.com/content/b533f886-54da-41d2-8ed7-855bc56d389d
Britain’s big election will be the one after this
https://www.ft.com/content/79f36254-64dd-411c-b793-327648a536fa
Britain's paltry savings are in Labour's crosshairs
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/25/britains-paltry-savings-are-in-labours-crosshairs/
Why Labour's electric car crusade risks crushing Britain's auto industry
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/25/labour-2030-ban-petrol-vauxhall-shut-down-factory/
Stellantis threatens to halt UK production over EV targets
https://www.ft.com/content/e8b0451f-e544-48ab-a40c-d890b6bcd205
US
Fed's Cook: Current policy is well positioned, attentive to inflation expectations
Fed’s Cook Says Rate Cut Needed at Some Point But Timing Unclear
ABN AMRO sees first Fed rate cut by September
https://www.forexlive.com/news/abn-amro-sees-first-fed-rate-cut-by-september-20240625/
Softer Inflation But Fewer Rate Cuts?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/softer-inflation-fewer-rate-cuts
Bond Traders Bet on 300 Basis Points of Fed Rate Cuts by March
Solid 2Y Auction Stops 'On The Screws', Highest Bid To Cover In A Year
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/solid-2y-auction-stops-screws-highest-bid-cover-year
US June consumer confidence 100.4 vs 100.0 expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-consumer-confidence-1004-vs-1000-expected-20240625/
Consumer Confidence Slightly Weakens in June
Conference Board Confidence 'Hope' Hovers Near Decade-Lows
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/conference-board-confidence-hope-hovers-near-decade-lows
Confidence Survey Shows Jobs Are Still Relatively Plentiful
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/confidence-survey-shows-jobs-are-still-relatively-plentiful/
Richmond Fed June manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/richmond-fed-june-manufacturing-index-10-vs-2-expected-20240625/
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Slowed in June
Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Increased in May
Dallas Fed Respondents Blast "Poor National Leadership" As Stagflation 'Erodes Business Confidence’
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.3% year-over-year in April
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html
Comments on April House Prices, FHFA: House Prices Increased 0.2% in April
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/comments-on-april-house-prices-fhfa.html
US Home Prices Hit New Record High, But YoY Appreciation Slows.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-home-prices-hit-new-record-high-yoy-appreciation-slows
S&P 6300? Is That Outside The Realm Of Possibility?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-6300-outside-realm-possibility
Biden, Trump Rematch: What It Means for US Stock Market
Politics Mean Strategists Are In Wait-And-See Mode
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/politics-mean-strategists-are-wait-and-see-mode
Here are the bull and bear cases for stocks from JPMorgan
https://www.forexlive.com/news/here-are-the-bull-and-bear-cases-for-stocks-from-jpmorgan-20240625/
Nobel prize-winning economists warn Trump would 'reignite' inflation
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/25/nobel-prize-economists-warn-trump-inflation.html
Stock-market buyback blackout period could spark dip as earnings season begins
S&P 500 Dividend Futures Retreat After Months of Rises
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/06/s-500-dividend-futures-retreat-after.html
CANADA
Trudeau In Trouble After Conservative Upset In Toronto "Must-Win" Special Election
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hints that he's not going anywhere
Why Liberals’ Loss in Canada Election Was Such a Blow for Justin Trudeau
Canada May CPI 2.9% versus 2.6% expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-may-cpi-29-versus-26-expected-20240625/
How to position for a possible Canadian recession
https://www.forexlive.com/news/how-to-position-for-a-possible-canadian-recession-20240626/
INDIA
India Stock Market Today: Big Bank Stocks Are Back in the Driver’s Seat
CHINA
From Politburo to PBOC: A Guide to Xi’s Power Structure Ahead of Third Plenum
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/china-policy-guide/
How China’s ‘dual circulation’ drive is shaping up – and what’s next on the agenda
Economists raise China growth forecasts as exports improve
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economists-raise-china-growth-forecasts-as-exports-improve
USDCNY keeps grinding towards previous intervention levels around 7.37
China's yuan RMB internationalization needs more 'applications,' HKEX CEO
China’s big housing correction is not over
https://www.ft.com/content/38f32adf-fc91-4f3c-a5df-69c676da646e
A $100 Billion Bet on China’s Economy Sours as Warehouses Empty
KOREA
South Korea Kicks Off $19 Billion of Chip Loans, Funds in July to Boost Industry
HSBC Upgrades Korean Stocks to Overweight on Memory Growth Ahead
AUSTRALIA
Australia's central bank says policy is restrictive, causing households pain
RBA's Kent says recent data reinforce need to be vigilant to upside inflation risks
Australia weighted CPI YY 4.0% vs 3.8% expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/australia-weighted-cpi-yy-40-vs-38-expected-20240626/
ARGENTINA
Javier Milei's shock therapy pushes Argentina into recession
BRAZIL
Lula’s spending plans turn heat on Brazilian markets
https://www.ft.com/content/2538f75c-535e-44a8-8c81-3c8feef08473
GLOBAL SECTORS
AIRLINES/TRAVEL
Airbus shares plunge as plane maker cuts profit forecast
AUTO’S
June Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.9 million SAAR, Down 1% YoY
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/june-vehicle-sales-forecast-159-million.html
Rivian to Form EV Venture With $5 Billion From Volkswagen
BANKS + FINANCIALS
Visa, Mastercard $30 billion swipe fee settlement rejected by US judge
LUXURY
LVMH’s Bernard Arnault emerges as personal stakeholder in Richemont
https://www.ft.com/content/eb9a7ae9-0dee-4c52-8542-f4f890e459dd
PHARMA
Novo Nordisk Shares Hit New Record As Wegovy Gets Approval In China
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/novo-nordisk-shares-hit-new-record-wegovy-gets-approval-china
‘Skinny jabs’: weight-loss drugs set for new boom as generic versions emerge
TMT
Shares of Nvidia surge nearly 7% to lead tech rebound
https://www.forexlive.com/news/shares-of-nvidia-surge-nearly-7-to-lead-tech-rebound-20240625/
As Nvidia executives sell stock, here’s what investors need to know
METALS
Central Banks' Appetite For Gold Hasn't Been Satisfied |
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/central-banks-appetite-gold-hasnt-been-satisfied
Is China Hiding How Much Gold It Really Has?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/china-hiding-how-much-gold-it-really-has
OIL+ GAS
WTI Holds Losses After API Reports Large Surprise Gasoline Inventrory Build
Oil - private survey of inventory shows build of 0.9M vs. -3.0M expected draw
Biggest Short Squeeze In Brent Since 2016 Sparks Flood Of Bullish Oil Commentary
CRYPTO
Bitcoin bounces above $62,000, Solana leads cryptocurrencies higher
FTX seeks creditor votes on bankruptcy wind-down payments
https://www.reuters.com/legal/ftx-seeks-creditor-votes-bankruptcy-wind-down-payments-2024-06-25/