Wednesday 22nd May
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia-Pacific markets: Japan trade, RBNZ decision
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/asia-pacific-markets-japan-trade-rbnz-decision.html
US stocks edged higher in catalyst-light trade as markets await FOMC Minutes and Nvidia earnings
SPX, NDX close at fresh records as AI-darling NVDA awaits
Stocks Inch Higher As Fearless Vol-Sellers Continue To Push Ahead Of NVDA/FOMC Mins
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-flat-fearless-vol-sellers-continue-push-ahead-nvdafomc-mins
MAIN MACRO DUE
Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, Architecture Billings Index
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/wednesday-existing-home-sales-fomc.html
FOMC Minutes Preview
https://marketnews.com/mni-fomc-minutes-preview-may-2024
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee speaking Wednesday
European Central Bank President Lagarde speaking on Wednesday
Bank of England Deputy Governor Breeden speaking Wednesday
Governor of the Riksbank Erik Thedéen is speaking on Wednesday
MAIN BONDS DUE
11:00: Sweden to Sell SEK1b of 2.25% 2035 Bonds
11:00: U.K. to Sell £4b of 4.125% 2029 Bonds
11:00: Greece to Sell Bonds
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Russia Launches Tactical Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine In Response To 'Western Threats'
Yellen warns German banks to boost compliance with US sanctions on Russia
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
Biden administration signals it will support push to sanction ICC
https://www.ft.com/content/6700a246-e0cd-49d8-b5ef-d2379e86290f
EU split over ICC’s Israel and Hamas arrest warrants bid
https://www.ft.com/content/f67e0417-f321-4e1f-bc74-fb8805911455
US and Saudi Arabia close to defence and civil nuclear deal
https://www.ft.com/content/1e98c483-415b-4026-9015-570bd5a62566
U.S. Says Historic Israel-Saudi Normalization Deal Within Reach but Israel Might Balk
Egyptian Spy Secretly Ruined Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire: CNN
https://www.businessinsider.com/egyptian-spy-secretly-ruined-israel-hamas-ceasefire-deal-2024-5
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
Yellen: U.S., Europe must respond jointly to China's industrial overcapacity
EU agonises over China trade curbs, in fear of targeted retaliation from Beijing
China considering car tariffs to retaliate against US and EU moves, trade group says
China May Raise Tariffs on Some US, EU Cars to Up to 25%, Lobby Group Says
ASML Chip Machines In Taiwan Have 'Kill Switch' In Event Of Chinese Invasion
China has a point about Taiwan’s new leader
https://www.ft.com/content/0e0ed54f-bc40-45b1-ac36-1d8d51035d7d
The Next North Korea Crisis Could Come This Year
https://www.businessinsider.com/the-next-north-korea-crisis-could-come-this-year-2024-5
Biden’s economic messaging is falling flat
https://www.ft.com/content/a9b82403-f36f-4fc0-882d-5a51cf49d4b7
Trump Ends Defense in Hush Money Trial Without Testifying
EUROPE
ECB’s Lagarde Sees June Interest-Rate Cut With Inflation ‘Under Control’
STOXX 600 Earnings Outlook 24Q1
https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2024/05/stoxx-600-earnings-outlook-24q1-may-21-2024/
UK
Bank of England governor predicts ‘quite a drop’ in UK inflation in April figure
https://www.ft.com/content/de7b9636-b9be-4b26-bd69-f731bff0cb9d
BoE will consider IMF's call for more press conferences, Bailey says
IMF warns Jeremy Hunt against UK tax cuts as it flags £30bn funding gap
https://www.ft.com/content/05ca8d33-d8e0-40a7-a897-326958298014
Jeremy Hunt looks to cut NICs again despite IMF warning of £30bn fiscal hole
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/21/imf-tells-uk-cut-taxes-jeremy-hunt
Raid inheritance and tax electric cars to bring down debt, says IMF
Sunak and Hunt to press ahead with tax cuts in defiance of IMF warnings
Rishi Sunak backs away from radical reform of graduate visa
https://www.ft.com/content/a9f24fb8-a9c6-4161-aaeb-a95e3f7a6938
Labour faces series of crises if elected, internal dossier warns
https://www.ft.com/content/b95976ff-d861-4baf-a168-fd262b4e2f95
US
Fed’s Collins, Mester-Inflation Drop To Take Longer
https://marketnews.com/mni-brief-feds-collins-mester-inflation-drop-to-take-longer
Fed Officials Collins, Mester Say More Data Needed to Cut Interest Rates
Fed Mester says to expect above trend growth for the year
Fed officials urge patience on timing of initial rate cut
Bond Traders Trim Fed Rate Cut Bets as Treasury Shorts Revived
Junk Bonds Join the Everything Rally
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/risky-bonds-join-the-everything-rally-3ca8b318
Dollar firm as Fed officials urge patience on rate cuts
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/dollar-steady-ether-fuels-crypto-rally.html
Why economist forecasts of a US recession were so wrong
https://www.ft.com/content/9d96e0e1-0067-4a37-abcf-3f288116e04c
Deutsche Bank raised its 2024 year-end S&P 500 target to 5,500
Why Are LargeCaps Doing Better Than SMidCaps?
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-bigger-cap-the-better/
Spring 2024 Snapshot of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/05/spring-2024-snapshot-of-expected-future.html
CHINA
China has finally unveiled its property rescue plan. Will it be enough?
https://www.ft.com/content/b087870a-7e26-4274-8fe5-fa36b75a9b6f
Xi’s Unique Problem: Leading Through China’s Economic Slowdown, Property Crisis
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-governing-china-after-the-boom/
Bulls beat a path to China stock shop but foreigners dare not go in
Trading in China's first batch of ultra-long bonds suspended due to 13% price jump
JAPAN
Reuters Tankan report for May: Manufacturing sentiment 9, unchanged from April
Japan April Exports +8.3% y/y (expected +11.1%) Imports +8.3% (expected +9.0%)
Japan March Machinery Orders +2.9% m/m (expected -2.1%)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-march-machinery-orders-29-mm-expected-21-20240521/
GLOBAL SECTORS
BANKS + FINANCE
BBVA Hires Lobbyists to Win Over Spanish Government on Sabadell Deal
BASIC RES
Clock Runs Down on BHP’s $43 Billion Bid for Anglo American
REAL ESTATE
US commercial real estate a year after the SVBacle
https://www.ft.com/content/a0f3e28f-aa1c-44ed-8f82-f0028a399c43
Germany property trough worsens as foreign investors scale back
TMT
Productivity soars in sectors of global economy most exposed to AI, says report
Nvidia earnings could spark $200 billion swing in shares, options show
Amazon changes plans to order Nvidia ‘superchip’ to await updated model
https://www.ft.com/content/75ac7f61-071a-437c-a35e-09f968c6a568
OIL + GAS
WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Unexpected Crude Build
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-extends-losses-after-api-reports-unexpected-crude-build-0
Biden to release 1 million barrels of gas to reduce prices at the pump
Biden Drains Entire Northeast Gasoline Reserve In Bid To Lower Gas Prices As He Trails Trump By Double Digits
METALS
Aluminum Jumps To 23-Month High Amid Ongoing Aussie Production Issues
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/aluminum-jumps-23-month-high-alumina-warning
CRYPTO
Ether jumps 16% on US ETF approval speculation
https://www.ft.com/content/ff8ed8cc-1411-46dd-9627-a8ffd5f37222
Over 80,000 Crypto Shorts Liquidated For Over $290 Million In 24 Hours As Ethereum Erupts