Wed 5th Jun
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia markets live updates: Indian elections, Australia GDP
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/05/asia-markets-live-updates.html
Asian stocks rise on rate-cut wagers; spotlight on India
Cautious risk tone as NFP looms
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cautious-risk-tone-nfp-looms-newsquawk-asia-pac-market-open
Soft JOLTs triggers further growth concerns, yields slide continues
Bonds & Bitcoin Bid (But Not Stocks) As 'Bad' News Jolts Rate-Cut Hopes Back To Life
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bitcoin-bid-bad-news-jolts-rate-cut-hopes-back-life
MAIN MACRO DUE
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/wednesday-adp-employment-ism-services.html
US ISM Services PMI for May due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (ADP jobs number too)
Bank of Canada policy decision due Wednesday, 5 June 2024, 25bp rate cut expected
Bank of Canada rate decision: A cut of 25 basis points is expected
ECB Interest Rate-Cut Expectations Start to Unravel Before First Move
ECB Board member Kerstin af Jochnick speaking Wednesday
MAIN BONDS DUE
11:00: Norway to Sell 3.625% 2034 Bonds
11:00: U.K. to Sell GBP4 Billion of 3.75% 2027 Bonds
11:30: Germany to Sell EU3 Billion of 2.4% 2030 Bonds
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Ukraine Sent Forces to Syria to Attack Russians, New War Front: Report
Netherlands Joins Denmark In Saying Ukraine Can Use F-16s To Strike Inside Russia
NATO Country Sends Air Force Instructor To Ukraine Ahead Of F-16 Arrival
Report Details US Troop 'Land Corridors' In Event Of European Ground War With Russia
What Is The Real Purpose Of The Swiss "Peace" Conference For Ukraine?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/what-real-purpose-swiss-peace-conference-ukraine
EU finance ministers to discuss leveraging Russian assets on Wednesday
Italy Pipes Up Against NATO Escalation As Court Ruling Could Cut Off Russian Gas Sooner Than Expected
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
Hamas senior official: Israel is not serious about reaching a deal in Gaza
Hamas: Can't Agree To Deal W/out Israeli Position On Permt Ceasefire
https://marketnews.com/hamas-can-t-agree-to-deal-w-out-israeli-position-on-permt-ceasefire
Israel-Hamas War: Hamas Rejects Gaza Peace Plan Without Permanent Cease-Fire
Biden: ‘every reason’ to believe Netanyahu is prolonging Gaza war for political gain
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/04/biden-netanyahu-ceasefire-israel-gaza-war
Biden has put his credibility on the line with the Gaza plan
https://www.ft.com/content/a2a2d119-4fe0-4619-9626-9d1ab4d647b3
US State Department says Israel is ready to implement a cease-fire deal
Israel Says Fires Under Control After Nearly 2,500 Acres Scorched By Hezbollah Attacks
Israel and Hezbollah Move Closer to Full-Scale War
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-and-hezbollah-move-closer-to-full-scale-war-988b3bfc
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
Biden 'Not Ruling Out' Boots On The Ground If China Invades Taiwan
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-not-ruling-out-boots-ground-if-china-invades-taiwan
Chinese carmakers brace for EU tariffs on electric vehicles from July 4
Post-Conviction Polls Show Increase In Support For Trump
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/post-conviction-polls-show-increase-support-trump
Behind Closed Doors, Biden Shows Signs of Slipping
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/joe-biden-age-election-2024-8ee15246
Biden’s Executive Actions on the Border and Immigration: What to Know
GLOBAL/GENERAL
Global central banks plan to increase dollar reserves, survey suggests
https://www.ft.com/content/1be234f2-c680-4ce9-beb7-d0d9a2793330
UBS says its even more convinced Gen AI will boost productivity. Raises equity forecast
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s firing of Turkey’s central bank heads ruled unconstitutional
https://www.ft.com/content/f290bbaf-0d12-4480-bef0-4baca576e6b7
EUROPE
Former head of ECB Trichet: Expects a 25 basis point cut from the ECB
UK
UK Election 2024: Sunak and Starmer clash in first head-to-head debate
Sunak Hits Starmer on Tax, But Loses on Likability in UK Debate
UK election latest: Sunak and Starmer clash on public services and immigration
https://www.ft.com/content/26a8f89a-73e3-420a-9968-d6b2cd356623
Keir Starmer, Rishi Sunak Debate: YouGov Snap Poll Shows No Clear Winner
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-06-04/uk-election-leaders-debate
Fewer than one in 12 ex-Tory voters think Sunak deserves to win, poll finds
https://www.ft.com/content/354bac09-e34d-4f72-808a-1b247d7d146c
Tories promise to introduce an annual cap on migration
https://www.ft.com/content/61021729-4c9d-4979-ae69-65c4e725540d
‘Arbitrary’ election pledges to cut UK migration will worsen worker shortages
UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says
Rishi Sunak faces Tory backlash over proposal to toughen ECHR stance
https://www.ft.com/content/04a23dab-35b9-466f-b9e7-c1fc629050dc
Tories plan big cuts to inheritance tax, predicts George Osborne
https://www.ft.com/content/1f96632b-795a-4610-86a6-9ec6e1f46fb1
Labour urged to act over ‘overly generous’ pension tax breaks
https://www.ft.com/content/2ed3ec93-81f5-486e-9437-caed2138953d
US
Treasury Secretary Yellen:Treasury never tries to time market in debt management
Dep Treas.Adeyemo: We expect inflation to continue to come down
Deutsche Bank analyst sees one 2024 Federal Reserve rate cut, "all the way in December"
Is the Fed Put Back?
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-fed-put/
Bond Traders Pile Into Fresh Bets on Faster Pace of Fed Cuts
US House Speaker Johnson speaks on Trump likely firing Fed Chair Powell
JOLTs job openings for April 8.059M vs 8.355M estimate. Lowest level since February 2021
https://www.forexlive.com/news/jolts-job-openings-for-april-8059m-vs-8355m-estimate-20240604/
Job Openings Tumble With Hiring Stuck At 2018 Levels
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/job-openings-tumble-hiring-stuck-2018-levels
US factory orders for April 0.7% versus 0.6% expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-factory-orders-for-april-07-versus-06-expected-20240604/
Americans Have More Investment Income Than Ever Before
https://www.wsj.com/economy/americans-have-more-investment-income-than-ever-before-84b7a6c6
The Apartment Construction Boom Ends, Major Economic Impact Ahead
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/apartment-construction-boom-ends-major-economic-impact-ahead
Poll predicts some mild weakness ahead for the USD
https://www.forexlive.com/news/poll-predicts-some-mild-weakness-ahead-for-the-usd-20240605/
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields
Buffett Valuation Indicator: May 2024
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/04/buffett-valuation-indicator-may-2024
S&P 500 2024 Q1 Earnings Review: A Good Start to the Year
https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2024/06/sp-500-2024-q1-earnings-review-a-good-start-to-the-year/
Texas group plans stock exchange to compete with NYSE and Nasdaq
Massachusetts Regulator Probes 'Roaring Kitty's' GameStop Trades Around Pumps
INDIA
Indian Election Results Are a Shocking Blow to Modi
https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6
India Election 2024: Why Modi & BJP’s Lead Was Narrower Than Expected
Third time may not be the charm for India’s Modi amid difficult allies and rejuvenated opposition
Foreign outflows from India markets hit a record after weaker Modi mandate
CHINA
China Caixin Services PMI for May 2024 54.0 (prior 52.5)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-caixin-services-pmi-for-may-2024-540-prior-525-20240605/
China Services Grow to Strongest in 10 Months Pointing to Economy Resilience
China sees property silver lining but can't shake Japan comparisons
Chinese who lost money in bank fraud detained for months after protest
JAPAN
Japan data: April total cash earnings +2.1% y/y (real wages -0.7%)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-data-april-total-cash-earnings-21-yy-real-wages-07-20240604/
AUSTRALIA
Australian Q1 2024 GDP +0.1% q/q (expected +0.2%)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-q1-2024-gdp-01-qq-expected-02-20240605/
Australia Economy Almost Stalls as High Rates Hit Households
Australian Treasurer Chalmers says Q2 GDP will also be ‘difficult'
Australian May Services PMI (final) 52.5 (prior 53.1)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-may-services-pmi-final-525-prior-531-20240604/
RBA's Bullock - If inflation proves sticky, won;t hesitate to hike rates
NEXICO
Mexico’s finance minister tries to reassure jittery investors
https://www.ft.com/content/e143a9f7-3ac6-497e-b4a7-ea73fa676f2e
GLOBAL SECTORS
BANKS + FINANCE
ECB ready to force banks to tackle climate risk, Buch says
ECB to seek higher real estate loan provisions from some German banks
Swiss financial regulator wants to be able to name and shame banks
Spain's BBVA seeks ECB go-ahead for Sabadell hostile bid, source says
TMT
Asia’s Chip Giants Hustle to Maintain Their Edge Over the U.S.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/asias-chip-giants-hustle-to-maintain-their-edge-over-the-u-s-2edd6904
Musk Gives Explanation for Why He Diverted Chips From Tesla to X
KfW sells 110 million shares in Deutsche Telekom for $2.7 billion
OIL + GAS
WTI Tests 4-Month Lows As API Reports Across The Board Inventory Builds
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-tests-4-month-lows-api-reports-across-board-inventory-builds
Oil - private survey of inventory shows a large headline crude oil build vs draw expected
OPEC+ Switches Strategy To Defend Market Share
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/opec-switches-strategy-defend-market-share
The Sliding Oil Price Is Good News For the UK Economy Now
US Energy Secretary says sees no huge increase in oil and gas prices in 'next short while’
CRYPTO
Bitcoin (BTC) Posts Longest Winning Run Since March on Fed Rate-Cut Bets
"Widening ownership is going to be propelling Bitcoin to $150,000”
FTX seeks to stop outside litigation against insiders, VC firms
Deutsche Bank ties up with Bitpanda in 'cautious' crypto shif