Wed 24th Jul
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia stock markets: Australia PMI, Japan PMI, Tesla, Alphabet earnings
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/24/asia-markets.html
US stocks were mixed and the major indices finished with mild losses as focus turned to earnings
Stocks chop with eyes on earnings
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-chop-eyes-earnings-newsquawk-us-market-wrap
Small Caps Surge On Short-Squeeze, Sloppy-Surveys; ETH Outperforms BTC As ETFs Launch
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/small-caps-soar-short-squeeze-sloppy-surveys-crypto-crude-crack
MAIN MACRO DUE
Wednesday: New Home Sales, Architecture Billings Index
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/wednesday-new-home-sales-architecture.html
All analysts surveyed expect the Bank of Canada to cut by 25bp today
Bank of Canada Decision Guide: Interest-Rate Cut Expected Again
Australia Q2 CPI preview - "June CPI should not close the door on a rate cut”
European Central Bank speakers on Wednesday include de Guindos, Lane and Buch
Biden Will Speak Wednesday on Decision to Drop Out of 2024 Race
MAIN BONDS DUE
11:00: U.K. to Sell GBP2.25 Billion of 4.375% 2054 Bonds
11:30: Germany Calls for Bids on Auction of EU5 Billion 2.6% 2034.
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Ukraine Might Actually Be Semi-Serious About Resuming Peace Talks With Russia
Ukraine Top Envoy Visits China First Time Since Russian Invasion
EU Eyes Sanctions Tweaks to Reassure US on Russian Assets Plan
Moscow Offers Record $22,000 for Russians to Fight in Ukraine
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
Harris’s Support for Gaza Cease-Fire Hints at Foreign-Policy Shift
Netanyahu To Have Separate Meetings With Biden, Harris, & Likely Trump Too
Israel’s Netanyahu Confronts Altered Political Landscape in U.S.
US Rejects China's Gaza Mediation Efforts For Legitimizing Hamas
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-rejects-chinas-gaza-mediation-efforts
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
Taiwan Live-Fire Exercises Aimed At China Muted By Typhoon
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/taiwan-live-fire-exercises-aimed-china-muted-typhoon
China may take ‘tough measures’ in Sabina Shoal stand-off with Philippines, analysts say
Whether Harris or Trump, the prospect of a direct China-US conflict is unlikely: expert
Trump 2.0 could go 'nuclear' on trade with China, economist says
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/24/trump-vs-harris-china-trade-tariffs-policy.html
Global chip equipment makers double China revenue share since U.S. controls
Chinese turbines in North Sea 'threaten security of Europe'
UK has three years to prepare for war, army chief says
https://www.ft.com/content/8a741760-695b-45a2-8bd7-2b779a07fa4d
Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race: Poll
Reuters 'Shock Poll' Finds Kamala Leading Trump, There's Just One Catch…
Stumbling Out Of The Gate: Harris Starts Race Down 11 Points, Even Worse Than Biden
What are Kamala Harris’s chances against Donald Trump?
https://www.ft.com/content/77b32462-3d56-43f9-bb4d-44f8c58edc8a
How Kamala Harris Locked Up the Nomination in Two Days
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/how-kamala-harris-locked-up-nomination-b5ccf4e6
The problem with the coronation of Kamala Harris
https://www.ft.com/content/81b37929-bfa7-4283-9785-d1de21ab0670
GOP Lawsuits Over Kamala Harris Ascension Will Fail, Experts Told BI
US Election 2024: Schumer, Jeffries to Endorse Kamala Harris for President
Shapiro, Kelly and Cooper frontrunners to be Harris’s running mate, say donors
https://www.ft.com/content/be6fda7e-6ec5-494a-a8ea-fa57a7a1c9f5
Kamala Harris tipped to keep Biden’s foreign policy team in place – at least at first
Trump Campaign Files Complaint to Block Biden Transferring War Chest to Harris
Will Donald Trump Debate Kamala Harris? He Says He's Willing
With Kamala Harris in the Race, Democrats Plan to Attack Trump’s Age
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/democrats-new-attack-trump-old-age-1e765b20
As investors eye US presidential race, JPMorgan exec says focus should be on policies
Where Kamala Harris stands on five crucial issues
https://www.ft.com/content/533c4ad7-ff61-4b3b-a8e5-9eda36b2bc02
How Would a President Kamala Harris Handle the Economy?
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/kamala-harris-economy-policy-election-2024-333a3751
Trump Advisers Float Making NATO Allies Spend More on Defense
Trump Floats Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary, Then Denies It
Trump Asks Appeals Court To Overturn $454 Million Civil Fraud Judgment
Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle Resigns Amid Anger Over Trump Shooting
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/secret-service-director-kimberly-cheatle-resigns-trump-shooting-2c1c35f1
GLOBAL/GENERAL
Why I am now optimistic that economies can break out of a rut
-El Erian
https://www.ft.com/content/6687578b-40b1-4026-b9bc-2c5ee4ef81a8
Immigration is both essential and impossible
https://www.ft.com/content/811f1b29-af5f-404c-a3a0-b28c5db4dec0
Five factors that will drive global equites higher still in H2 of 2024
EUROPE
ECB's de Guindos hints at September rate decision, focus on forecasts
EU consumer confidence flash for July -13 vs -13.4 estimate
https://www.forexlive.com/news/eu-consumer-confidence-flash-for-july-13-vs-134-estimate-20240723/
Emmanuel Macron to keep French caretaker government until after Olympics
https://www.ft.com/content/6ed83e9f-09b2-4a81-b183-4e9f1b4e14d5
Macron Says He Won’t Name a New Prime Minister Before Mid-August
Macron:Outgoing majority has lost elections,but French want non-far right to work together
Spanish Lawmakers Reject Fiscal Targets in Surprise Sanchez Loss
China’s Slowdown Is Taking a Rising Toll on European Profits
STOXX 600 Earnings Outlook 24Q2
https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2024/07/stoxx-600-earnings-outlook-24q2-jul-23-2024/
UK
UK data shows continued strong wage growth
https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-data-shows-continued-strong-wage-growth-20240723/
Public sector workers don't deserve a pay rise
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/23/public-sector-workers-dont-deserve-a-pay-rise/
Keir Starmer suspends seven Labour MPs after rebellion over two-child benefit cap
https://www.ft.com/content/ea921bcd-0b80-414f-86ff-089702d831ea
NHS may ‘break’ under patient demand, warns spending watchdog
https://www.ft.com/content/df6a5316-a266-4953-8e0d-7ddc5bf35fc9
UK ministers set to change environmental rules to boost housebuilding
https://www.ft.com/content/e34aaaf8-451f-4210-9d77-0d479e9de219
Does the Bank of England have a plumbing problem?
https://www.ft.com/content/fa21693c-e077-427b-b712-effeb0e1d931
US
Reuters Poll: 70 of 100 economists see a rate cut in September
Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing business outlook for July -10.0 versus +15.1 in June
Richmond Fed July manufacturing index -17 vs. -7 expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/richmond-fed-july-manufacturing-index-17-vs-7-expected-20240723/
'Worst Since COVID Lockdowns' - Regional Fed Surveys Plunged In July
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/worst-covid-lockdowns-regional-fed-surveys-plunged-july
US existing home sales for June 3.89M vs 4.00M estimate
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-for-june-389m-vs-400m-estimate-20240723/
US Existing Home Sales Puked (Again) In July…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-existing-home-sales-puked-again-july
Signs Of Severe Credit-Card And Auto-Loan Stress In Generation Z
Blowout 2Y Auction Sees Record Foreign Buyers, Yields Slide
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/blowout-2y-auction-sees-record-foreign-buyers-yields-slide
Small-caps rally ignites options frenzy, but strategists urge caution
Sizing up the small-caps rally
https://www.ft.com/content/a85bc2ee-9847-4a35-a318-a577f68e7fb6
Bank of America clients bailed out of stocks last week at the fastest pace in years
The Bull Market – Could It Just Be Getting Started?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bull-market-could-it-just-be-getting-started
Earnings results update 23 July 2024 (AMC)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/earnings-results-update-23-july-2024-amc-20240724/
S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 24Q2
https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2024/07/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-24q2-july-23-2024/
S&P 500 Dividend Futures Rebound
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/07/s-500-dividend-futures-rebound.html
INDIA
India unveils spending binge to boost Narendra Modi’s allies
https://www.ft.com/content/ca9349ec-1cd9-4985-aa1f-4e96605f46e7
India's Modi sets aside billions for jobs, allies in post-election budget
Income tax cuts for middle class in Modi budget, no hike for ultra-rich
JAPAN
Japan flash PMIs (July): Manufacturing 49.2 (prior 50.0) Services 53.9 (prior 49.4)
Japan Economy Shows Strong Services, Factory Contraction Before BOJ Meeting
The Man Who Helped Spark Japan's $1.7 Trillion Rally Thinks It's Just Starting
AUSTRALIA
Australian flash PMI (July): Manufacturing 47.4 (prior 47.2) Services 50.8 (prior 51.2)
GLOBAL SECTORS
AUTO’S
July Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.1 million SAAR, Up 1% YoY
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/july-vehicle-sales-forecast-161-million.html
Tesla misses profit estimates as Elon Musk delays ‘robotaxi’ launch
https://www.ft.com/content/4eacbf5a-9a45-44fa-a568-027a27f84992
Tesla Slides As Profit, Margins Disappoint; Production Of "More Affordable Models" To Begin In First Half Of 2025
Tesla's margin getting hammered by discounts and hefty AI spending
Tesla Q2 2024 Conference Call And Bullet Points
http://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2024/07/tesla-q2-2024-conference-call-and.html
GM slows its EV plans again even as sales grow
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/gm-slows-its-ev-plans-again-even-as-sales-grow.html
BANKS + FINANCIALS
A Harris presidency would carry baton on financial industry crackdown
Capital One profit drops 61% as it stockpiles more money for loan losses
London banks lose patience with 'crazy' French and German workers' rights
Britain makes it tougher for banks to close branches
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/britain-makes-it-tougher-banks-close-branches-2024-07-23/
Spanish banks, unions agree on 11% wage increase over three years
BBVA target Sabadell forecasts higher lending income, lifts payouts
Insurers’ losses from global IT outage could reach billions
https://www.ft.com/content/f65a3309-c9bb-4c30-a7f0-135b9116f61a
LUXURY
LVMH’s Fashion Unit Sees Slower Growth as Luxury Spending Cools
TMT
Alphabet Shares Unimpressed Despite Top- & Bottom-Line Beat
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/alphabet-shares-unimpressed-despite-top-bottom-line-beat
Alphabet meets earnings expectations but misses on YouTube ad revenue
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/alphabet-set-to-report-q2-earnings-results-after-the-bell.html
Alphabet revenue jump shows no sign of AI denting search business
https://www.ft.com/content/6a3d6a2c-7dc3-4e83-9fd2-22c79a578f6e
What Google decision to keep cookies means for the internet
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/what-google-decision-to-keep-cookies-means-for-the-internet.html
Meta warns EU regulatory efforts risk bloc missing out on AI advances
https://www.ft.com/content/3c9d4172-91c0-417a-b347-00b4a9aee892
OIL + GAS
Crude oil prices drop to $76.51, down 2.4%
Oil: Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw larger than expected
PM Novak: Russia cut oil production in July, nearly to OPEC agreed target level
CRYPTO
Pro-Crypto Trump Drives Split Between Bitcoin (BTC), Global Equities
US spot ether ETFs make market debut in another win for crypto industry
Coinbase (COIN) Wins Citi Upgrade on Crypto Regulatory Optimism
Ex-directors allege fraud at Tether-backed crypto group Northern Data
https://www.ft.com/content/18cf9179-b7e1-49cd-badf-da7848147244