Wed 12th Jun
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia stock markets today: China inflation, India CPI, Fed decision
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/asia-stock-markets.html
Asian shares muted on soft China price data; US inflation data on tap
US stocks finished mixed on the eve of the FOMC and US CPI release
Stocks mixed but NDX leads while bonds rally after strong 10yr auction
Bitcoin Battered, Bonds Bid, Apple Bounces Back Before Big-Risk Day
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-battered-bonds-bid-apple-bounces-back-ahead-big-risk-day
MAIN MACRO DUE
Wednesday: CPI, FOMC Statement
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/wednesday-cpi-fomc-statement.html
Fed meeting and inflation report both hit Wednesday, and the impact could be huge
US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates to know
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-cpi-data-due-wednesday-the-ranges-of-estimates-to-know-20240612/
Goldman Sachs forecasts US May Headline CPI @ 3.4% y/y, core 3.5%
Preview: Eyes will be on every detail of the May CPI report
https://www.forexlive.com/news/preview-eyes-will-be-on-every-detail-of-the-may-cpi-report-20240611/
CPI Previews
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/cpi-previews.html
Fed Meeting Preview June 2024: Officials Await May CPI Data to Finalize Dot Plot
Fed’s interest-rate path a ‘very close call’ as market awaits Powell’s guidance
Fed Dots Likely Split Between 1 And 2 Cuts This Year
https://marketnews.com/mni-fed-dots-likely-split-between-1-and-2-cuts-this-year
The Fed’s Interest Rate-Cut Cues Will Be in Focus
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-meeting-interest-rate-preview-9eabab49
Timiraos: Fixation on dot plot obscures 'remarkable cohesion' on the Fed's stance
Stocks used to rise ahead of Fed meetings. Not anymore
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-used-to-rise-ahead-of-fed-meetings-not-anymore-4504f60d
Here's what investors expect from stocks after the Fed on Wednesday
HSBC says hawkish risk around the FOMC, but buy the dip when it comes
ECB speakers on Wednesday include Schnabel, Villeroy, Vujcic, de Guindos
MAIN BONDS DUE
11:00: (Norway) Norway to Sell 2% 2028 Bonds
11:00: (Norway) Norway to Sell 2.125% 2032 Bonds
11:00: (Swiss) Switzerland to Sell 1.25% 2043 Bonds
11:30: (Ger) Germany Calls for Bids on Auction of EU4 Billion 2.2% 2034
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Russia Kharkiv Offensive Was Strategic Misstep, Stalled Progress: Experts
Ukraine pleads for western aid to restore power generation
https://www.ft.com/content/a3cc326d-04a8-4551-8d43-f097eb0c8c9b
Ukraine To Keep Many F-16 Jets Abroad On Fears Russia Will Immediately Destroy
US Lifts 10-Year Weapon Ban On Ukraine's Neo-Nazi Azov Brigade
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-lifts-10-year-weapon-ban-ukraines-neo-nazi-azov-brigade
US Deploys Sub Hunter P-8 Poseidon Off Florida Coast To 'Shadow' Russian Flotilla
Korybko: Don't Read Too Deeply Into Russia's Naval Visit To The Caribbean
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/korybko-dont-read-too-deeply-russias-naval-visit-caribbean
G-7 Summit 2024: G-7 to Announce ‘New Steps’ on Frozen Russian Assets, US Says
US to broaden scope of Russia sanctions
https://www.ft.com/content/1ba434bb-e579-4819-977b-cff6b6b98ecc
Chip Sales to Russia to Be Curbed Under Wider US Sanctions
EU Proposes to Sanction Sovcomflot to Limit Russia’s Revenue
Multibillion-euro court battle over stranded Russian jets begins in Dublin
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
Hamas responds to Gaza cease-fire plan seeking some changes. U.S. says it’s ‘evaluating’ the reply
Israel says Hamas rejects key elements of US ceasefire plan for Gaza
US Mulls Separate Deal With Hamas To Free 5 American Citizens
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-mulls-separate-deal-hamas-free-5-american-citizens
Hezbollah Tries To Down Israeli Fighter Jets With Anti-Aircraft Missiles In First
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
US Weighs More Limits on China’s Access to Chips Needed for AI
Australia Realistic on China Challenges as Premier Li Visit Looms, Chalmers Says
Norway discovers Europe's largest deposit of rare earth metals
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/11/norway-discovers-europes-largest-deposit-of-rare-earth-metals.html
Biden Leading Trump For First Time Since Early May, Morning Consult
https://marketnews.com/biden-leading-trump-for-first-time-since-early-may-morning-consult
GLOBAL/GENERAL
World Bank boosts 2024 global GDP growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%
EUROPE
ECB's Makhlouf: I'm not uncomfortable with little-more than one rate cut this year
ECB’s Lane Says Euro Moves Haven’t Impacted Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/ecbs-lane-says-euro-moves-havent-impacted-inflation-9b9ce142
Why Emmanuel Macron went all in against Marine Le Pen
https://www.ft.com/content/47e03216-61df-440b-97d6-45d50236b3b5
Macron’s Gamble Triggers Chaos and Anger Inside His Party
Macron Pushes Back on Resignation Talk as French Bonds Slide
French Poll Puts Le Pen in Lead With 35% in Election First Round
Le Maire Warns of Debt Crisis If Le Pen’s Party Wins
Fitch: France snap election increases fiscal and reform uncertainty
In a year of elections, European bonds still seem a safer bet than US debt
https://www.ft.com/content/d32d6ee3-808f-427d-86ad-bff1b991c72e
UK
UK pay grows 5.9% despite slowing jobs market
https://www.ft.com/content/c598083b-9b4c-4651-a29f-7ea643d0cd80
Strong wage growth will further delay cut in UK interest rates, City believes
UK unemployment nears three-year high as election approaches
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/11/uk-unemployment-nears-three-year-high-as-election-approaches.html
Worklessness a 'threat to growth' after hitting 13-year high
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/worklessness-now-threat-growth-13-year-high/
UK mortgages in arrears hit near 8-year high
https://www.ft.com/content/e30f28b2-6e75-4550-8104-4a45a3427376
Rishi Sunak pledges £17bn in tax cuts to revive Tory election bid
https://www.ft.com/content/d1e72a18-25d5-4c42-ab5d-4ebb5464f2d0
Sunak’s £17bn tax cut vow based on questionable plans, analysts warn
https://www.ft.com/content/be04df76-6526-4a24-8584-1042a2b0f0ba
Do the sums add up in Tory tax-cut manifesto?
‘We’ve gambled nothing’: Tory right despondent on Rishi Sunak’s manifesto
https://www.ft.com/content/789ef15c-6967-4f3b-a18d-edf92cca1d77
Conservatives Turn on Rishi Sunak’s UK Election Promises Amid Prospect of Defeat
Reeves warns against changing the way the BoE pays interest on bank reserves
https://www.ft.com/content/11bdb2f6-e478-462f-b205-470f44679c91
Labour vows to boost UK tech sector by easing planning and procurement processes
https://www.ft.com/content/0393b91a-a53e-4418-83ec-0f5d7f43b515
North Sea company run by Labour campaigner abandons project because of 'negative political rhetoric’
The Lib Dem strategy to restore their third party status
https://www.ft.com/content/c123e54f-06a5-4cbb-9fbb-9907d7782308
UK public trust in government falls to record low
https://www.ft.com/content/d2b39afb-b15d-4713-b6ea-96d39d123d68
US senator urges UK to investigate Shein’s labour practices ahead of IPO
https://www.ft.com/content/b82ae9e2-0aa8-4e7d-9d7e-3068169830b0
US
BlackRock's Rick Rieder still expects a Fed rate cut in September, but conviction not high
The US budget is like an aggressive leveraged finance deal
https://www.ft.com/content/31c4e593-070c-4448-a68b-9dff44686356
NFIB Small Business Survey: Highest Level of the Year
Game Over For Birth/Death Adjustment?
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-birth-death-horse/
U.S. Probability of Recession in Next Twelve Months Hovers Near 70%
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/06/us-probability-of-recession-in-next.html
Bond Traders Abandon Bets on Treasury Rally Before Fed, CPI Day
Stellar 10Y Auction Sees Surge In Foreign Demand, Near Record Stop Through
Companies Unleash 2nd Biggest Stock Buyback Spree On Record Ahead Of Buyback Blackout This Friday
CANADA
IMF scolds Bank of Canada, should consider better communication of its monetary policy
INDIA
With unchanged core Cabinet team, Modi signals it is business as usual for India
CHINA
China May CPI +0.3% y/y (expected +0.4%) and PPI -1.4% y/y (expected -1.5%)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-may-cpi-03-yy-expected-04-and-ppi-14-yy-expected-15-20240612/
With CPI rebounding for fourth month, has China shrugged off deflation fear?
China is considering banning banks distributing hedge fund products
China's Real Estate Crisis: A New Experiment In State Intervention
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-real-estate-crisis-new-experiment-state-intervention
China's home de-stocking push to bring developers little cheer
China’s glut of idle property causes headache for the government
JAPAN
Japan PPI (May) +0.7% m/m (expected +0.4) and +2.4% y/y (expected +2.0%)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-ppi-may-07-mm-expected-04-and-24-yy-expected-20-20240611/
Bank of Japan left its Japanese Government Bond purchase amounts unchanged
JP Morgan says Japanese stocks have room to go a lot higher
https://www.forexlive.com/news/jp-morgan-says-japanese-stocks-have-room-to-go-a-lot-higher-20240612/
MEXICO
Peso Tumbles Further After Leftist President-Elect Sheinbaum Confirms Drastic Reform
USD/MXN: Sheinbaum, AMLO and the Mexico Reforms Spooking Markets
GLOBAL SECTORS
AIRLINES/TRAVEL
Boeing sales tumble as the company gets no orders for the 737 Max for the second straight month
AUTO’S
JPM Analysts Say Tesla's Robotaxis Are "Years" Away From Launch
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-analysts-say-teslas-robotaxis-are-years-away-launch
BANKS + FINANCE
PIMCO expects more US regional bank failures: "The real wave of distress is just starting”
ECB says many euro zone banks dragging their feet on loan-loss provisions
UBS and Credit Suisse's Swiss units could merge by July 1
Spanish stock market supervisor assesses BBVA's application for $13 billion Sabadell deal
TMT
Elon Musk drops lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altmanb
https://www.ft.com/content/03b9fb65-5f12-41a8-9d8e-e2243b72466d
Apple shares close at record high after company unveils AI software
Apple adds $215B in market cap as stock leads S&P 500 for first time in years
Apple leapfrogs Nvidia as value soars by $150bn
What the Apple-OpenAI Deal Means for Four Tech Titans
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/apple-openai-deal-big-tech-dc3fe4ce
Why Google is one of the big winners from Apple’s WWDC
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-google-is-one-of-the-big-winners-from-apples-wwdc-3ddbace0
Oracle (ORCL) Q4 earnings report 2024
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/11/oracle-orcl-q4-earnings-report-2024.html
METALS
UBS reiterated their positive view on gold - buy dips
https://www.forexlive.com/news/ubs-reiterated-their-positive-view-on-gold-buy-dips-20240612/
Copper hits 7-week low on weak yuan, rising stockpiles
OIL + GAS
WTI Bounces After API Reports Crude, Gasoline Draw
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-bounces-after-api-reports-crude-gasoline-draw
Oil - private survey of inventory shows a larger headline crude oil draw than was expected
EIA raises its forecast for 2024 and 2025 world oil demand
https://www.forexlive.com/news/eia-raises-its-forecast-for-2024-and-2025-world-oil-demand-20240611/
CRYPTO
The Bitcoin Effect: Onwards And Upwards Post-Halving
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-effect-onwards-and-upwards-post-halving