Tuesday 4th Jun
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia markets live updates: India elections, South Korea CPI
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/04/asia-markets-live-updates-india-elections-south-korea-cpi.html
US stocks ultimately finished the Monday session mixed. Growth fears initially weighed on sentiment after the US Manufacturing ISM headline fell by more than expected
Stocks chop and yields flop after soft ISM
Stocks Slide, Bonds Bid As Crude Crumbles
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slide-bonds-bid-crude-crumbles
MAIN MACRO DUE
Tuesday: Job Openings
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/tuesday-job-openings.html
Key Events This Week: Jobs, Jolts, ISM, And Fed Blackout Period Begins
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/key-events-week-jobs-jolts-ism-and-fed-blackout-period-begins
Highlights for the week: Bank of Canada and ECB are expected to cut rates. US jobs report
Will the ECB cut rates?
https://www.ft.com/content/af8a2c85-359c-4201-992b-a3fe607d801b
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is speaking Wednesday, Sydney morning
Australia Q1 GDP report due Wednesday, expected to remain very weak
BoC Preview - June 2024: GDP Last Building Block for Rate Cut
https://marketnews.com/mni-boc-preview-june-2024-gdp-last-building-block-for-rate-cut
MAIN BONDS DUE
10:15: Denmark to Sell 2.25% 2026 Bonds
10:15: Denmark to Sell 0.25% 2052 Bonds
10:15: Denmark to Sell 2.25% 2033 Bonds
10:30: Spain to Sell 364-Day Bills
10:30: Spain to Sell 182-Day Bills
11:00: UK to Sell GBP2 Billion of 4% 2063 Bonds
11:00: Switzerland to Sell 91-day Bills
11:30: Germany Calls for Bids on Auction of EU4.5B 2.9% 2026 Bonds
12:00: Finland to Sell 252-day Bills
12:00: Finland to Sell 341-day Bills
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Zelensky Accuses China Of Helping Russia Sabotage Swiss Peace Summit
Kremlin warns Washington of 'fatal' miscalculation to let Kyiv use U.S.-supplied weapons inside Russia
Russia’s nuclear threats are losing their power
https://www.ft.com/content/cd915be3-f065-4513-a549-0fcd03fabddd
Russia-China gas pipeline deal stalls over Beijing’s price demands
https://www.ft.com/content/f7a34e3e-bce9-4db9-ac49-a092f382c526
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
Israel Says Biden’s Latest Gaza Peace Plan Is Only Part of Story
Netanyahu coalition slides into infighting over ceasefire plan
https://www.ft.com/content/c3847778-23b0-4743-afb4-a1999f8d7318
Over A Million Flee Rafah As Netanyahu Calls Biden's Hostage Deal ‘Incomplete'
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
China hits out at ‘aggressive’ Taiwan for military build-up
https://www.ft.com/content/e3a0d125-8f14-4d47-bc22-fc26e7c5ad01
The West is completely unprepared for Xi Jinping's next masterstroke
Malaysia urged to follow Philippines’ lead and get tougher with Beijing over South China Sea claims
Post-Conviction Polls Show Increase In Support For Trump
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/post-conviction-polls-show-increase-support-trump
Trump’s Persecution Claims Get Boost from US Adversaries
Joe Biden set to tighten US immigration with limit on asylum seekers
https://www.ft.com/content/a37dd6d6-51f8-40d4-b0d0-498fb1ac4e8a
GLOBAL/GENERAL
Rate-Cut Hopes Are Galvanizing Demand for Bonds Everywhere
Global equity funds record first outflows in five weeks amid rising U.S. yields
https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-flows-2024-05-31/
EUROPE
Cut rates - then what? Five questions for the ECB
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/cut-rates-then-what-five-questions-ecb-2024-06-03/
Deutsche Bank have upgraded their outlook for Euro Area GDP for 2024 to 0.9% (from 0.4%
UK
UK data - May BRC like for like sales +0.4% y/y (prior -4.4%)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-data-may-brc-like-for-like-sales-04-yy-prior-44-20240603/
UK May Final Manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs.51.3 expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-may-final-manufacturing-pmi-512-vs513-expected-20240603/
UK Spending Growth Slowed in May on Rising Bills, Poor Weather
Brexit figurehead Nigel Farage to run in UK election after U-turn
UK Election: Nigel Farage Jumps Race as Sunak Faces Debate Against Starme
Tory election hopes hit after Nigel Farage decides to stand for Reform UK
https://www.ft.com/content/162aab1c-23e8-4fe6-b5eb-ec48b51a71a9
UK Election: Sunak Mulls Move on ECHR as Farage Plunges Tories Into Crisis
PM must face questions about hedge fund at heart of financial crash, says Labour | General election 2024
Labour’s pledge to cut immigration tightens party’s fiscal straitjacket
https://www.ft.com/content/19ea4e42-58dc-4b53-9d35-03d846d0f772
Labour’s lack of boldness could come back to haunt it
https://www.ft.com/content/f9945f54-58c5-440d-be30-ae9af8541775
Shein fashion group plans to file for London listing in coming days
https://www.ft.com/content/f2836789-7610-4801-b836-466e13e8c927
Why Labour can't count on Shein's £50bn boost to save the City
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/03/labour-count-on-shein-50bn-boost-to-save-city/
Is the London market regaining its fundraising mojo?
https://www.ft.com/content/e5bd53c8-90cf-4653-82ed-067daf8d946d
US
Former Fed Kaplan. September is a possibility, but Fed still expects the Fed to be patient
UBS says traders are too cautious on Fed rate cuts, base case is 50bp in 2024
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.7% in May
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/ism-manufacturing-index-decreased-to.html
ISM Manufacturing Survey Signals Further Stagflation: Growth Slows, Prices Rise
Key Engines of US Consumer Spending Are Losing Steam All at Once
Is The Economy Starting To Look More Recessionary?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/economy-starting-look-more-recessionary
After Berkshire Crashes To 0, NYSE Says "Technical Issue Has Been Resolved" And All Systems Operational
GameStop Shares Double After 'Roaring Kitty' Posts $180 Million Bet
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gamestop-shares-double-after-roaring-kitty-posts-174-million-bet
GameStop GME shares surge as 'Roaring Kitty' posts account showing $116 million position
Wall Street trade failure rate rise in third day of faster settlement
INDIA
India polls: Vote counting begins, with exit polls predicting a third term for PM Modi
India stocks hit record highs after exit polls predict Modi election win
CHINA
Hedge Funds Dump Chinese Stocks At The Fastest Pace In Almost A Year
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-dump-chinese-stocks-fastest-pace-almost-year
Chinese Stock Rebound Sparks Rush of Companies to Raise Funds
JAPAN
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says if inflation moves as expected, will adjsut policy
Japan Economy Minister says real growth in the economy of 1.3% in FY 2025 not unrealistic
Japan’s $62bn support for yen provides little reprieve
https://www.ft.com/content/e36896d0-98f1-4a97-8495-8ec2a82f192d
Japan’s Suzuki Says FX Intervention Was Effective to Some Extent
BoJ Executive Director Kato: Bank has no plan to immediately unload its holdings of ETFs
AUSTRALIA
Here's a forecast for two more Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes still to come
NEXICO
Mexico Elects Leftist Claudia Sheinbaum As First Female President In Landslide
Mexico election winner Claudia Sheinbaum vows continuity as investors fret
https://www.ft.com/content/530cb4eb-fedc-44e4-afd4-a75084b2297a
GLOBAL SECTORS
AUTO’S
Vehicles Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR in May; Up 2.5% YoY
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/vehicles-sales-increase-to-159-million.html
BANKS + FINANCE
UBS reaches milestone in Credit Suisse absorption as parent companies merge
Deutsche Bank sees slightly lower fixed income revenue in Q2
Restrictions on UniCredit eased in Russian lawsuit
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/restrictions-unicredit-eased-russian-lawsuit-2024-05-31/
Spanish prosecutor requests opening of trial against BBVA in alleged spying case
PHARMA
GSK shares tumble 9% after 70,000 Zantac lawsuits allowed to move forward
TMT
Nvidia & Goldman See Common Theme: Next AI Trade Will Be In 'PC Upgrade Cycle'
Nvidia market cap jumps by $350bn amid ‘gamma squeeze’
https://www.ft.com/content/a5f511ba-70bb-42c4-a355-13c0367fca90
Apple's WWDC 2024: Expect AI News, Siri Updates, New Homes Screen, and More
OIL + GAS
Oil price slumps by 4pc despite Opec cuts
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/03/ftse-100-latest-news-live-uk-shein-london-float/
OPEC+ Agrees To Extend Collective Output Cuts Until End Of 2025
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/opec-agrees-extend-gradually-wind-down-output-cuts
OPEC+ Meeting Shows Persistent Demand Weakness
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/opec-meeting-shows-persistent-demand-weakness
OPEC+ Says Goodbye to Its $100-a-Barrel Oil Quest
HSBC hold their Brent oil price assumptions steady after OPEC+ meeting
RBC on oil and OPEC+, 'data dependent’
European gas price jumps 13% after Norwegian outage
https://www.ft.com/content/0f4efc5c-639f-466a-b1f5-b188040313ca
CRYPTO
Bitcoin Debate Heats Up Over Software Revamp to Add New Features