Tue 18th Jun
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia shares push higher; Aussie firm ahead of RBA rate decision
Asia stock markets live: RBA decision, S&P record high
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/asia-stock-markets.html
MAIN MACRO DUE
Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/tuesday-retail-sales-industrial.html
US data focus for Tuesday - May retail sales - the range of expectations to watch
Preview: What to watch for in the May US retail sales report
https://www.forexlive.com/news/preview-what-to-watch-for-in-the-may-us-retail-sales-report-20240617/
Retail Sales To Beat Estimates According To Latest Card Spending Data
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-sales-beat-estimates-according-card-spending-data
Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: Retail Sales, Housing And PMIs
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/key-events-holiday-shortened-week-retail-sales-housing-and-pmis
Central banks are back on the agenda this week
https://www.forexlive.com/news/central-banks-are-back-on-the-agenda-this-week-20240617/
Reserve Bank of Australia preview - straight forward decision, on hold with a neutral bias
Will the Bank of England signal rate cuts are close?
https://www.ft.com/content/7da5edf8-7c82-4373-92f5-0b80479c5140
Federal Reserve speakers today include Barkin, Collins, Kugler, Musalem, Logan, Goolsbee
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos is speaking on Tuesday
US markets closed for Juneteenth on Wednesday, June 19th - market hours impact
MAIN BONDS DUE
10:15: Denmark to Sell Bonds
11:00: U.K. to Sell GBP4 Billion of 4.125% 2029 Bonds
11:00: Switzerland to Sell 91-day Bills
11:30: Germany Calls for Bids on Auction of EU4 Billion of 2.1% bonds
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Putin To Arrive In North Korea Tuesday, First Visit In 24 Years
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-arrive-north-korea-tuesday-first-visit-24-years
Putin to Visit North Korea, Vietnam This Week as Russia's War on Ukraine Stalls
Putin vows trade, security with North Korea beyond reach of West
Putin’s ‘destabilising’ North Korea trip unnerves Seoul with ‘existential threats’
Live Fire Incident: Casualties Reported After North Korean Soldiers Cross Military Demarcation Line
NYT Documents: Putin Was Willing To Compromise To End War In 2022
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nyt-documents-putin-was-willing-compromise-end-war-2022
Putin Expands Defense Shuffle, Appoints Allies From Inner Circle
China support for Russia in Ukraine compels Nato to seek Asian partnerships: top official
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
Netanyahu Disbands War Cabinet Amid Deepening Rifts Over Gaza Strategy
Benjamin Netanyahu dissolves Israel’s war cabinet after centrist members resign
https://www.ft.com/content/1be749ba-5cc6-43e6-9d02-13c573790e2e
Israel Says It's On "Brink" Of Wider War With Hezbollah
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israels-military-says-its-brink-wider-war-hezbollah
Aid Trucks Pile Up Inside Gaza Despite Pause in Fighting
Israel Knew Hamas' Plans Weeks Before Before Oct. 7: Report
https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-knew-hamas-plans-weeks-before-before-oct-7-report-2024-6
Iran's upcoming snap elections: A battle of anti-western hardliners
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
Record number of NATO allies expected to hit defense spending target
Macron’s Struggles Have Europe Fretting Over Defense and Ukraine
Mark Rutte offers deal to Viktor Orbán as he seeks to clinch Nato top job
https://www.ft.com/content/44ce139a-0e26-478c-bd6e-2801c464e308
The US wants to decouple its military supplies from China – but can it?
Trade War 2.0? China Launches Anti-Dumping Probe On Pork Imports From EU After EV Tariffs
EU leaders request more time to reach deal on bloc’s top officials
https://www.ft.com/content/b93e0be9-6e96-432c-8958-a17f2954172e
EU capitals to back second term for Ursula von der Leyen
https://www.ft.com/content/b93e0be9-6e96-432c-8958-a17f2954172e
Ties warm during Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s landmark trip to Australia but dark clouds loom
Biden’s Tough-on-China Stance Threatens Green America Push
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/bidens-tough-on-china-stance-threatens-green-america-push-344e1c64
Trump's Tariff Plan to End Income Tax Means Stagflation, Trade Wars
GLOBAL/GENERAL
Global central banks recalibrate as the big policy easing of 2024 fizzles
Citi downgrades European equities, cites 3 reasons. Upgrades its view on US equities
M&A-focused hedge funds lead the pack in May, Goldman Sachs says
EUROPE
ECB's Lane confident of hitting inflation goal despite noisy data
ECB's Lane sees no need for any French bond rescue
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecbs-lane-plays-down-need-french-bond-rescue-2024-06-17/
ECB pays attention to good functioning of markets, Lagarde says, after France spooks investors
French Markets Stabilize After Le Pen Says She'll Work With Macron In Appeal To French Moderates
French businesses court Marine Le Pen after taking fright at left’s policies
https://www.ft.com/content/e28f9753-1770-4c8c-91d8-e7bb7ed44feb
French Leftist Alliance Edges Closer to Le Pen in Election Poll
The fantasy economics of France’s far right and left
https://www.ft.com/content/90f12e3a-afff-4d85-87ba-f93d2539e2b8
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: the French left’s divisive standard-bearer
https://www.ft.com/content/3aa30c20-7fb7-4965-b2de-22d47d8740f0
The Euro Is Trapped Between Devilish Fed and Raging Politic Seas
German union unleashes battle over pay by demanding 7% wage rise
https://www.ft.com/content/d5587a0b-864c-45c7-8a02-72c8a24a62f6
UK
Farage unveils Reform UK’s £140bn pledges that economists say ‘do not add up’
Nigel Farage’s Reform pledges £88bn in ‘radical’ tax cuts
https://www.ft.com/content/3ba2547f-b3c2-4d13-be9e-cf35acce631d
Why Farage Party Reform UK Is Such a Threat to UK Conservatives
Labour risks higher mortgage bills and worse unemployment, says HSBC
Labour’s EU plan will have ‘minimal’ impact on cost of Brexit, says think tank
https://www.ft.com/content/9f37b5eb-f6a0-4232-afd1-99ead7487d5c
UK Election: National Health Service’s Financial Crisis is Top of Voters’ Agenda
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-uk-nhs-trusts-funding-hospital-finances-debt/
The Labour party’s uncertain certainty dividend
https://www.ft.com/content/ab43341f-be34-44aa-9b31-05f78548717d
Labour’s North Sea tax pledge will kill investment, industry warns
https://www.ft.com/content/c12dda0a-140a-40c6-a1ce-a0da14e292ff
Investment in UK has trailed other G7 countries since mid-1990s, IPPR says
Why productivity is so weak at UK companies
https://www.ft.com/content/eddeb6bc-e469-4177-a2fa-21e9e80ab97e
London dragging down UK productivity as office staff work from home
US
Fed’s Harker Sees One Interest-Rate Cut Appropriate for 2024 Based on Outlook
Fed President Mester Urges US Central Bank to Communicate More Clearly
Fed To Cut Twice In '24, Start Sept - Sheets
https://marketnews.com/mni-interview-fed-to-cut-twice-in-24-start-sept-sheets
Fed Chair Powell scheduled for July 9 Senate Banking testimony
The Real Story Behind the Fed's "Soft Landing" Narrative
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/real-story-behind-feds-soft-landing-narrative
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Declines Modestly in June
WSJ Timiraos: See's core PCE falling to 2.6% from 2.8% last
https://www.forexlive.com/news/wsj-timiraos-sees-core-pce-falling-to-26-from-28-last-20240617/
Rent Hikes Loom, Posing Threat to Inflation Fight
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/rent-hikes-loom-posing-threat-to-inflation-fight-e6797e39
Dollar Tests 2024 High as Europe Turmoil Sparks Flight to Haven
Goldman Sachs raises S&P 500 year-end target to 5,600
JP Morgan's Kolanovic stays bearish. Actual traders at JPM ignoring him, see SPX higher
GameStop drops after annual meeting fails to offer details on firm's strategy
CHINA
Recession with Chinese Characteristics
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/recession-with-chinese-characteristics/
Chinese house prices fall at fastest pace in a decade
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/17/chinese-house-prices-fall-fastest-pace-in-decade/
Hong Kong stock markets to keep trading during typhoons, starting Sept. 23
JAPAN
BOJ Governor Ueda Reiterates July Hike Possible Even With JGB Buy Cuts
Bank Japan Gov Ueda: Must be vigilant to impact of weak yen, import price moves on economy
Bank of Japan Gov Ueda expects strengthening in Japan wage-price cycle - higher inflation
Japan finance minister Suzuki - Interest rates are set by markets
Nomura warn of yen intervention - also see risk of a BoJ rate hike at its next meeting
GLOBAL SECTORS
AUTO’S
Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway trims stake in EV maker BYD to 6.9%
BANKS + FINANCIALS
Citigroup (C) Pitches Money-Moving Services Business as Central to Revamp
UBS begins major share buy-back programme
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ubs-begins-major-share-buy-back-programme-2024-06-17/
UBS sets aside €900m to repay Greensill investors
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/17/ubs-sets-900m-repay-greensill-investors/
UK's Labour pledges to plug gaps left by bank branch closures
TMT
Nvidia to get 20% weighting and billions in investor demand, while Apple demoted in major tech fund
Apple scraps ‘buy now, pay later’ service in US just months after rollout
https://www.ft.com/content/aa6dc2cf-bb8e-4ed7-be25-d725eba37aa8
CRYPTO
How Does Crypto Perform In An Inflationary Recession
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/how-does-crypto-perform-inflationary-recession