Thurs 23rd May
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia markets: Fed inflation, Japan PMI, Singapore GDP, BOK decision
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/23/asia-markets.html
US stocks finished lower as markets braced for Nvidia earnings although futures received a boost after-hours after the Co. results topped forecasts and announced a 10-for-1 stock split
MAIN MACRO DUE
Thursday: New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/thursday-new-home-sales-unemployment.html
Heads up for US Treasury Secretary Yellen to speak in Europe on Thursday
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Bostic speaks Thursday
MAIN BONDS DUE
None
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Ukraine, U.S. Say Russia Is Deploying Banned Toxic Gas in Battle
https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-u-s-say-russia-is-deploying-banned-toxic-gas-in-battle-48b1b841
British defence minister says China plans to provide Russia with ‘lethal aid’ for Ukraine war
US questions UK claims that China is providing ‘lethal aid’ to Russia
https://www.ft.com/content/44ad9fc5-6ccf-47f0-b075-8bef0a9a1cd9
Russia Blasts As 'Fake News' Fresh Pentagon Charge Of Anti-Satellite Weapon
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
Netanyahu Issues Warning To US Leaders Over ICC Arrest Warrants: 'You're Next'
Israel recalls envoys as Spain, Ireland and Norway commit to recognise Palestinian state
https://www.ft.com/content/dfa16579-c44e-4069-ba6f-fcc45cc518ae
WH Nat. Security Advisor Sullivan: US has been targeted, limited Israel operations in Gaza
Western officials warn of ‘catastrophe’ if Israel cuts off Palestinian banks
https://www.ft.com/content/7cc35072-0d4b-404a-bab4-e1cc876628cd
Secretive Son of Iran’s Supreme Leader Quietly Wields Power After President’s Death
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-khamenei-son-raisi-death-dba3580f
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
China asks carmakers to use up to 25% local chips by 2025
https://www.ft.com/content/98a50ed8-1265-4f31-986f-6c874bc815f0
Mainland Chinese forces start ‘blockade’ drills around Taiwan 3 days after Lai speech
Taiwan’s prized semiconductors not unbreakable ‘silicon shield’ they once were as mainland China, West develop own bargaining chips
Xi and Trump's Rise Underline High Stakes for EU's Future
Biden, Trump rematch: How the presidential election may disrupt the stock market
Biden Cancels Another $7.7 Billion In Student Debt For 160,000 Borrowers |
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-cancels-another-77-billion-student-debt-160000-borrowers
GLOBAL/GENERAL
Brazil, France, Spain, Germany and S. Africa Push To Tax Billionaires 2% Yearly; US Says No
EUROPE
ECBs's Schnabel: If data confirms outlook, June cut is likely
ECB's Schnabel - says wage growth is slowing gradually
Italy May Have Europe’s Biggest Debt in Three Years
Bundesbank warns of inflation risk as wages rise more than expected
European shares to hit pause before rising again in 2025 - Reuters poll
UK
Rishi Sunak calls July 4 UK general election
https://www.ft.com/content/51ea5b2c-7cb8-4c15-8501-669ce1e1d577
How Rishi Sunak shocked Westminster with a snap general election
https://www.ft.com/content/bfb032c6-89d4-40c6-9d80-255e15a77996
UK Election 2024: Sunak's Early Election Call Even Blindsided Jeremy Hunt
Things can only get better? For Sunak and the UK economy, this might be as good as it gets
General election: The economic stars aligned. The Tories had nothing left to lose
A last gamble for a prime minister who has run out of road
https://www.ft.com/content/030a044d-04b3-43b5-8927-34d06312a7f5
Wages, the NHS and migration: the Tories’ record in charts
https://www.ft.com/content/ddde6306-e094-4617-ba1e-8e73b49d057f
Improving UK economy does little to lift Tory hopes of victory in July election
https://www.ft.com/content/9a084849-5789-4e9f-bc66-cba1ff9cc98a
UK Election 2024: Labour Leads Polls, But 2019 Defeat Still Haunts Party
UK general election poll tracker
https://www.ft.com/content/c7b4fa91-3601-4b82-b766-319af3c261a5
What happens if the general election ends in a hung parliament?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/general-election-uk-hung-parliament-sunak-starmer-labour/
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer promises change and an end to Tory ‘chaos’
https://www.ft.com/content/dbb42b84-29eb-453d-a165-8e0052ca014e
Angela Rayner has ruined Labour's last remaining good policy
Jeremy Hunt’s tax cut plans face setback as government borrowing tops £20bn | Budget deficit
Inflation Miss May Delay But Shouldn’t Deter Bank of England Rate Cut
Big drop in UK inflation rate disguises more disappointing details
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/22/uk-inflation-rate-drop-analysis
UK rental price growth pulls back from peak
https://www.ft.com/content/5b9456e0-9b4d-46a4-a00a-5e6117fef43e
Well, inflation has been defeated. What next for the Bank of England?
https://www.ft.com/content/bd267f0f-a6da-4639-a23a-a67fdd8d55d8
UK rate cut hopes dented after inflation falls less than expected
https://www.ft.com/content/c17be87f-c7ff-426c-9679-18eedb1bdeb6
Traders bet against summer rate cut despite fall in inflation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/22/inflation-tumbles-lowest-level-since-2021/
Bank of England will cut interest rates in August, says Goldman Sachs
The big fly in the ointment that threatens to spoil Bailey's party
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/22/charts-that-show-bank-of-englands-inflation-dilemma/
Sterling builds on gains as British PM calls July election
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/pound-holds-firm-after-british-pm-calls-july-election-2024-05-22/
Pound Volatility Rises on Earlier-Than-Expected July UK Vote
US
"'Hawkish' FOMC Minutes Show 'Various' Members Willing To Tighten More, Fear Financial Conditions 'Too Easy'"
http://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2024/05/hawkish-fomc-minutes-show-various.html
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) May meeting minutes - "a decidedly hawkish tone"
FOMC Minutes: "Recent increases in inflation had been relatively broad based”
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/fomc-minutes-recent-increases-in.html
Federal Reserve officials were open to further US rate rises to quell inflation
https://www.ft.com/content/0d08f043-e84e-4a4f-acd1-d0510cfda22f
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: See zero Fed cuts in 2024
https://www.forexlive.com/news/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-see-zero-fed-cuts-in-2024-20240522/
US existing home sales for April 4.14M versus 4.21M estimate
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-414m-versus-421m-estimate-20240522/
Home Sales Fell Again in April After High Mortgage Rates Damped Activity
Biggest US retailers cut prices as inflation hits shoppers
https://www.ft.com/content/e3b5c1a0-48ac-4922-970a-8b9ca7c2539e
Solid Demand For 20Y Paper In Week's Only Coupon Auction
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/solid-demand-20y-paper-weeks-only-coupon-auction
Dow 60,000: Here We Come
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/dow-60-000-again/
CANADA
3 reasons the Bank of Canada will begin a cascade of rate cuts, first in June
CHINA
Chinese sovereign bond trading suspended after frantic retail buying
https://www.ft.com/content/43874f49-745b-444c-8fc4-969e46c9f97a
China State Media Warns on Speculative Trading in Special Bonds
China's Stock Rally Still Misses One Crucial Piece
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-stock-rally-still-misses-one-crucial-piece
JAPAN
Japan’s Kishida faces plummeting public support – can opposition take advantage?
The Bank of Japan left its JGB buying amounts the same as the previous operation
Japan preliminary May manufacturing PMI 50.5 (prior 49.6)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-preliminary-may-manufacturing-pmi-505-prior-496-20240523/
Japanese 10Y Yield Rises Above 1% For The First Time Since 2013
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japanese-10y-yield-rises-above-1-first-time-2013
Reuters survey of Japanese firms: Almost half of firms see USD/JPY above 155 as a negative
Japanese Stocks Propped By Record Buybacks
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japanese-stocks-propped-record-buybacks
KOREA
South Korea leaves base rate at 3.5% (as expected
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/south-korea-leaves-base-rate-at-35-as-expected-20240523/
AUSTRALIA
Australian data - Consumer Inflation Expectations for May 2024: 4.1% (prior 4.6%)
Australian May preliminary manufacturing PMI 49.6 (prior 49.6)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-may-preliminary-manufacturing-pmi-496-prior-496-20240522/
GLOBAL SECTORS
BANKS + FINANCE
Britain set to scrap NatWest share sale amid surprise election, sources say
UniCredit studies 'every possible M&A target', rules out SocGen, CEO tells FT
SocGen CEO: cross-border mergers between European banks are structurally unlikely
BASIC RES
Anglo American rejects third takeover bid from rival BHP Group
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/anglo-american-rejects-third-takeover-bid-from-rival-bhp-group-.html
Anglo shareholder PIC demands ‘meaningful revision’ to BHP bid
https://www.ft.com/content/8d2d2cd7-c5eb-4b99-b8eb-84495e9cb41a
BHP's Sweeteners Finally Wear Down Anglo American
BHP Has a Week to Convince Anglo Its South African Plan Can Work
TMT
Nvidia Trades To New All-Time High (afterhours) NVDA
http://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2024/05/nvidia-trades-to-new-all-time-high.html
Nvidia shares top $1,000 on AI boom
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/23/cnbc-daily-open-nvidia-shares-top-1000-on-ai-boom.html
Nvidia’s revenue soars 262% on record AI chip demand
https://www.ft.com/content/2ce59a81-61b7-4052-810e-8bdc425367e4
Nvidia shows no sign of AI slowdown after data center soars over 400%
Nvidia's Jensen Huang Lays Out When Blackwell AI Chip Will Hit Market
https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidias-jensen-huang-blackwell-ai-chip-will-hit-market-2024-5
Meta’s Zuckerberg Creates Council to Advise on AI Products
Meta AI chief says large language models will not reach human intelligence
https://www.ft.com/content/23fab126-f1d3-4add-a457-207a25730ad9
Amazon (AMZN) to Invest €15.7 Billion in Spain in Global AWS Buildout
South Korea Unveils $19 Billion Chip Package in Boost for Samsung, SK Hynix
METALS
Chinese Factories Recoil From Paying Record Copper Prices
OIL + GAS
WTI Rallies After Crude Inventory Build, Another Large SPR Addition
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-rallies-after-crude-inventory-build-another-large-spr-addition
Crude oil inventory inventory build up 1.825M versus a drawdown of -2.547M estimate
CRYPTO
US House Passes FIT21 Crypto Bill With Bipartisan Support, Biden Does Not Threaten Veto
"It's Happening" - Ethereum ETF Bidders Amend SEC Filings, List At DTCC
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/its-happening-ethereum-etf-bidders-amend-sec-filings-list-dtcc
First UK crypto ETPs to launch on May 28
https://www.ft.com/content/76e9ecf3-4429-42c5-a945-43ab92abfda4