Thurs 20th Jun
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia markets live: China keeps LPR steady, New Zealand exits recession
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/20/asia-markets.html
MAIN MACRO DUE
Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/thursday-housing-starts-unemployment.html
Federal Reserve speakers Thursday include Kashkari, Barkin, Daly
Bank of England set to hold rates despite inflation hitting target
How has the BOE rates pricing changed after the inflation data today?
Why the Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates this week
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/19/why-bank-of-england-unlikely-to-cut-interest-rates/
Nomura is expecting an on hold decision from the Bank of England today, GBP won't be moved
BOE Interest Rate Cut Expected to Be Pushed Back by UK Election, Inflation
Why Aren’t UK Interest Rates Falling as Inflation Tumbles?
Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Cuts: Central Bank Silence Sets Up Cliffhanger
MAIN BONDS DUE
10:30: Spain to Sell 3.45% 2034 Bonds
10:30: Spain to Sell 3.5% 2029 Bonds
10:50: France to Sell 0% 2032 Bonds
10:50: France to Sell 5.5% 2029 Bonds
10:50: France to Sell 2.75% 2027 Bonds
10:50: France to Sell 2.75% 2030 Bonds
11:50: France to Sell 0.1% 2036 Oati Linkers
11:50: France to Sell 0.1% 2053 Linkers
11:50: France to Sell 1.85% 2027 Linkers
11:50: France to Sell 0.1% 2036 Oatei Linkers
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
North Korea's Kim Vows to 'Unconditionally' Support Putin, Russia's Ukraine War
Russia's Putin, North Korea's Kim Agree to Offer Military Aid If Attacked
Vietnam Welcomes Russian President Putin in Boost to Ties, Ignoring US Criticism
How Putin Rebuilt Russia’s War Machine With Help From U.S. Adversaries
Macron's Idiotic Ukraine Policies Have Paved Way For Triumph Of The French Right
Poland Was Just As Much To Blame As Britain For Sabotaging Spring 2022's Peace Talks
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
Hezbollah Leader Escalates Rhetoric As Tensions With Israel Increase
https://marketnews.com/hezbollah-leader-escalates-rhetoric-as-tensions-with-israel-increase
Hizbollah warns of fight ‘without limits’ and threatens Cyprus
https://www.ft.com/content/f620c03a-e1fc-411c-8309-9e9b1b8876e1
Israel warns Lebanon of prospect of ‘all-out war’ as U.S. seeks to de-escalate hostilities
Escalating Clashes Between Israel and Hezbollah Raise Risk of Wider War
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-and-hezbollah-inch-toward-wider-war-e14b79aa
Expensive Incompetence: US Giving Up On $230 Million Gaza Air Pier
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/expensive-incompetence-us-giving-230-million-gaza-air-pier
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
China Will Struggle to Undo US Dominance
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-19/china-will-struggle-to-undo-us-dominance
US Calls Out ‘Escalatory’ China Moves as Manila Releases Videos
EU-China Trade War: The Likely Targets of China's Retaliation for EU Tariffs
German economy minister says relationship with China has become more complex
China’s exports could go from economic asset to liability as trade tensions multiply, analysts say
The mother of all US presidential debates
https://www.ft.com/content/8853932b-4f81-475d-bff9-86eb3b89a025
EUROPE
ECB's Centeno: ECB will cut if disinflation process continues
ECB urges Eurozone countries to cut high levels of debt
https://www.ft.com/content/54f26aa6-f868-4ab5-b8fb-5e6ecd1b5bab
Europe must prepare for five years of radical change
https://www.ft.com/content/ffe369ac-172d-4b99-9db2-1431d60d5c22
France Elections: Le Pen's National Rally Backs Arming Ukraine, Bardella Says
France’s unbalanced power structures are storing up trouble
https://www.ft.com/content/d9b2d691-3f7f-4d86-87db-4b98ef8d94f3
UK
Don’t Expect UK Interest Rates to Fall Far
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-06-19/don-t-expect-uk-interest-rates-to-fall-far
Bank of England accused of 'penalising the young' by keeping mortgage rates high
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/19/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-inflation-cpi-fall-2pc/
Inflation falls to Bank of England's 2pc target in boost for Rishi Sunak
UK services inflation is a headache
https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-services-inflation-is-a-headache-20240619/
How ‘pub meal’ inflation has hit hopes of UK rate cut
https://www.ft.com/content/028b6d1f-0222-41bd-b9cc-db4b81ae7cef
UK Election: Three Major Polls Suggest Conservative Party Wipeout
Labour Set for 162-Seat Majority, More in Common MRP Poll Finds
No, Keir, the real opposition is behind you
https://www.ft.com/content/8e803797-f5ff-4e80-8a5e-c6ac359f102d
Tories are ‘politically scarred’ by Liz Truss, says Jeremy Hunt
https://www.ft.com/content/017a1d6a-36f0-418f-80d8-bdf1cfafdaf8
Potential routes forward for the Tories post-election
https://www.ft.com/content/8cb7caf1-e19c-4b17-a7bf-8ce0a555202b
SNP pledges fresh independence talks if it gains majority of Scottish seats
https://www.ft.com/content/a0631a17-b7ee-4997-ab01-84ab8a805e0a
Labour says pressure on family finances still acute as UK inflation falls to 2%
Expert economists back Labour’s plan to end economic stagnation in UK
Britain could become 'island of stability' as Macron debt crisis consumes France, says UBS
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/19/france-risks-eu-fines-as-brussels-rebuke/
Labour can increase spending without raising tax
https://www.ft.com/content/f5f5f5ce-0ce6-4627-b512-689cc72da106
Why UK private equity is ‘encouraged’ by Labour’s signals on promised tax crackdown
https://www.ft.com/content/12732ba7-3d65-4426-8bef-ef90ea5dc731
Extra £38bn a year needed by 2029-30 to ‘revive’ NHS, says think-tank
https://www.ft.com/content/656c6acd-1a25-4f75-8e02-e22bf5ae3a83
Labour resists calls to close UK tax loophole used by Shein
https://www.ft.com/content/3ce6f9d6-01bf-4c2a-af0c-2a412378f17c
US
How Trump Could Influence Federal Reserve If Reelected
The Big Four Recession Indicators
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/18/the-big-four-recession-indicators
US June NAHB housing market index 43 vs 45 prior
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-nahb-housing-market-index-43-vs-45-prior-20240619/
NAHB: Builder Confidence Declined in June
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/nahb-builder-confidence-declined-in-june.html
U.S. stocks remain a sweet spot for investors, but they also need this exposure
Probability of a US stock market crash is below-average according to “froth forecasts”
CANADA
68% Of Canadian Believe That Trudeau Should Resign In 2024
https://marketnews.com/68-of-canadian-believe-that-trudeau-should-resign-in-2024
BOC Minutes: Governing Council considered waiting until July to cut rates
Bank of Canada Considered Waiting Until July to Cut Interest Rates
BOC Saw 'Gradual' Cuts Mirroring Price Slowdown- Minutes
https://marketnews.com/mni-boc-saw-gradual-cuts-mirroring-price-slowdown-minutes
What's priced in for the Bank of Canada
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/whats-priced-in-for-the-bank-of-canada-20240619/
INDIA
India aims to be developed nation by 2047— priorities Modi can't ignore
India set for decade-high $2 billion bond inflows around JPMorgan index inclusion day
Global Investors Jump Into Indian Bonds as JPMorgan Index Inclusion Nears
CHINA
PBOC Loan Prime Rates (LPR) remain unchanged at today's rate setting, as expected
Fitch pushes back China rate cut as Fed holds interest rates steady
Offshore yuan at its lowest since November last year as the PBOC relaxes its grip on CNY
Overseas Investors Sell Chinese Stocks, Disenchanted with Moutai
JAPAN
Japan survey of firms - very few believe wage growth quicker than inflation achievable
The Music Just Stopped: Japan Banking Giant Norinchukin To Liquidate $63 Billion In Treasuries & European Bonds To Plug Massive Unrealized Losses
GLOBAL SECTORS
AIRLINES/TRAVEL
Boeing faults leave two astronauts stranded in orbit
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/19/boeing-faults-leave-astronauts-stuck-space-station/
BANKS + FINANCIALS
AI Is Likely to Displace More Finance Jobs Than Any Other Sector, Citi Says
Regional Banks Want to Slim Down. Hedge Funds Smell a Bargain.
Citi emphasizes regulatory fixes as it lays out growth targets
JPMorgan follows Goldman in lifting UK bonus cap
https://www.ft.com/content/0b60b642-51a4-484a-a785-a2f679616a7b
EU Moves Toward Closer Banking Ties With Failed-Lenders Plan
Banks have a year to shift clearing from London to EU, Eurex says
Strikes loom as 200,000 German bank staff fight for hefty pay rise
Swiss regulator rules out UBS antitrust action over Credit Suisse deal
TMT
Most stocks hyped as winners from AI boom have fallen this year
https://www.ft.com/content/1e02d0d3-3f0b-4bd1-a79c-9fd45d1b6056
Nvidia stock rally faces test in Friday’s ‘triple witching’ options expiration
METALS
Czech central bank governor Michl wants to buy 60 tons of gold, " gradual purchases"
OIL + GAS
Oil hits seven-week high on demand hopes, war jitters
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/19/oil-steady-amid-us-stock-build-but-jitters-abound.html
CRYPTO
MicroStrategy Incorporated: The good and bad sides of the trade