Thurs 13th Jun
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia stock markets live updates: Fed decision, EV tariffs
US stocks gained on softer CPI data but with further upside capped on hawkish Fed dot plots
Stocks jump on soft CPI, looks through hawkish Fed dot plot
Inflation Moderates & Stocks Soar As Fed Aims For One Rate Cut In 2024
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/inflation-moderates/
Pensive Powell & Hawkish 'Dots' Spoil Markets' Soft-CPI Party
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-flip-flop-buybacks-bad-data-battle-hawkish-dots
MAIN MACRO DUE
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/thursday-unemployment-claims-ppi.html
The BoJ meet today and tomorrow - 'reduction of bond buys' chatter reignited on Wednesday
Bank of Japan to weigh cuts to gov't bond purchases- report
Two speakers from the Bank of Canada on Thursday: Gov. Macklem and Dep. Kozicki
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Putin To Arrive In North Korea As Kim Hails "Invincible Comrades-in-Arms”
Russian Warships Dock In Cuba To Give 'US A Dose Of Its Own Medicine’
Finland In First NATO Deployment Parks Jets On Russia's Doorstep
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/finland-first-nato-deployment-parks-jets-russias-doorstep
G-7 Leaders to Agree to Tap Frozen Russian Assets, France Says
G-7 Calls on China to Stop Enabling Russia’s War in Ukraine
US Prepares To Expand Secondary Sanctions On Russia
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-prepares-expand-secondary-sanctions-russia
Russia, hit by new US sanctions, halts dollar and euro trade on main bourse
US Treasury widens sanctions to curb Russia's war production
New US wave of Ukraine sanctions includes targets in Hong Kong and mainland China
Hungary agrees not to veto NATO's deepening support for Ukraine
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/hungary-agrees-not-to-veto-natos-deepening-support-for-ukraine.html
Biden Approves Sending 2nd Patriot System To Ukraine Ahead Of G7
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-approves-sending-2nd-patriot-system-ukraine-ahead-g7
How (Russian) Oil Is Adding Fuel To Geopolitical Fragmentation
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-russian-oil-adding-fuel-geopolitical-fragmentation
The EU Is Still Buying A Lot Of Russian Gas
http://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-eu-is-still-buying-lot-of-russian.html
Putin's Gazprom ordered to pay €13bn to German energy giant
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
US says Hamas seeking changes to ceasefire plan; Hamas denies proposing new ideas
Hamas demands changes to Biden ceasefire plan
https://www.ft.com/content/84399461-dbf4-4b54-bc77-afe44adcc63c
Blinken Says If Gaza Truce Deal Fails Only Hamas Is To Blame: "It's On Them"
Gaza Israel: Blinken Says Hamas Response to Cease-Fire Means War Continues
Israel and Hamas committed war crimes, says UN, as Gaza truce plan hangs in the balance
Iran-backed Houthis hit ship with sea drone
https://www.ft.com/content/34515d21-424e-4322-9752-6c0b71ee0beb
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
G7 leaders head to Italy for summit as Ukraine and Russia top the agenda
China drones can counter US ‘hellscape’ in Taiwan Strait: analysts
US lawmakers pass Tibet policy bill that questions China’s claims over region
Diverging Trends in U.S. Trade with China and the Rest of the World
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/06/diverging-trends-in-us-trade-with-china.html
Why Biden Is Escalating Trump’s China Tariffs
EU to hit Chinese electric cars with tariffs of up to 48%
https://www.ft.com/content/0545ed62-c4b9-4e8a-80fa-c9f808e18385
Europe Needs More and Cheaper EVs. Tariffs Will Keep Them Costly
How will new EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles work?
Brussels is gambling that tariffs on Chinese EVs are a prod, not a punch
https://www.ft.com/content/5df0e9d1-110b-439a-a91e-a898b0f1b077
China’s vehicle sales recovered in May, government subsidies cited as helping
Germany to launch limited military service in push to be ‘war ready’
https://www.ft.com/content/4d6729f5-bc23-428a-a372-080b36c80e4d
Modi 3.0 must heed history and seek to avert border war with China
Morgan Stanley on Biden vs. Trump - the pros and cons
https://www.forexlive.com/news/morgan-stanley-on-biden-vs-trump-the-pros-and-cons-20240612/
EUROPE
ECB's Schnabel spoke on Wednesday: "last mile" of disinflation is proving bumpy
No Return To Below-Target Inflation - De Guindos
https://marketnews.com/mni-brief-no-return-to-below-target-inflation-de-guindos
ECB’s Guindos Says ‘Huge’ Uncertainty Leaves 2024 Rate Path Open
France's Macron says he won't quit if his party loses in snap election vote
Emmanuel Macron appeals for rivals to join his fight against ‘extremist fever’
https://www.ft.com/content/159662f9-34ff-409f-962d-594e0dd88d26
French conservative leader deposed by party for backing Marine Le Pen
https://www.ft.com/content/01d80fd3-40f5-4313-a90c-87906c067c51
Macron Group Has 18%, Le Pen Party 31% in Elabe Election Poll
Le Pen victory threatens 'Liz Truss-style' debt crisis in France
France needs clarity around budget strategy after snap election, says ECB's Villeroy
Germany's May inflation rises to 2.8% on higher services prices
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-inflation-confirmed-28-may-2024-06-12/
Germany is descending into chaos – and it will take the rest of the eurozone down with it
Greece plans early repayment of 8 bln euros from first bailout, officials say
MSCI Rejects Plan to Add EU Debt to Government Bond Indexes
UK
UK economy flatlines in blow to Rishi Sunak’s hopes of recovery
How Britain's economy went from 'gangbusters' to flatlining
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/12/uk-economy-flatlines-in-blow-for-sunak-election/
Poor investment in UK regional cities curbed economic growth, report finds
Why Britain's biggest economic problem is proving near-impossible to fix
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/11/uk-wage-growth-too-hot-summer-interest-rate-cut/
BOE seen cutting rates in August - poll
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-seen-cutting-rates-in-august-poll-20240612/
Jacob Rees-Mogg calls on Rishi Sunak to do election deal with Farage's Reform party
Labour 'super-majority' would put UK in 'dangerous place', Grant Shapps warns
What Labour 'super majority' warnings say about Tory election hopes
Starmer will be centrism’s last chance
https://www.ft.com/content/b574f37c-7ff8-4e16-a5e8-88d31fafd0d4
UK Election 2024: Starmer Promises Labour Focus on Economic Growth
Keir Starmer expected to limit MPs’ summer break if Labour wins UK election
https://www.ft.com/content/030de21a-f04b-4c78-8121-504617873aee
Private equity firms collect $1tn in fees at reduced tax rates
https://www.ft.com/content/fe5d60bc-5a59-40d0-a50f-6b99b31e8fce
Green party unveils £50bn wealth tax in pitch to disenchanted Labour voters
https://www.ft.com/content/751360a1-0340-4990-8968-25b41557c3f0
To help Britain prosper, the next government must work with business
https://www.ft.com/content/d6717ee4-e26b-465a-9f17-300898882368
US
Fed Projects Just One Cut This Year Despite Mild Inflation Report
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/cpi-report-fed-meeting-interest-rate-ef93c8b0
Federal Reserve officials signal one interest rate cut before end of 2024
https://www.ft.com/content/a13f8795-8684-4c6d-ad0b-9142706cf33e
Fed Signals One Interest Rate Cut This Year, But Powell Keeps Door Open to Two
FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-17
Powell opening statement: Inflation has eased substantially but is still too high
Powell Q&A: Regardless of dots, everyone at FOMC would say they're 'very data dependent'
A word-by-word comparison of the May FOMC statement to the June FOMC statement.
The full statement from the Federal Reserve June 2024 interest rate decision
Timing the Fed rate cut, unhelpful edition: 'it is what it is'
Stung by Past Mistakes, a Wary Fed Takes Its Time
What Fed’s rate cut delay means for US and the world
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/what-fed-s-rate-cut-delay-means-for-us-and-the-world
Powell Admits The Biden Admin Is "Overstating" Jobs
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-chair-powell-admits-biden-admin-overstating-jobs
Fed’s $1 trillion pile of paper losses are turning into actual losses
US inflation falls to 3.3% in May in boost to markets
https://www.ft.com/content/4e723daa-7955-4712-b74d-391a403b9d6d
Consumer Prices Hold At Record Highs - Up 20% Since Biden Elected
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-prices-hold-record-highs-20-biden-elected
Wall Street Reacts To Today's Dovish CPI Shocker: "Down And Out"
Goldman Sachs on May CPI - "good news, but we will need more of it" - "may" be September
US CPI Report May 2024: Key Takeaways on Inflation, Core Measure
CPI Components: Breaking Down the May 2024 CPI
Here's the inflation breakdown for May 2024 — in one chart
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/cpi-inflation-may-2024-in-one-chart.html
US CPI May 2024: Inflation Broadly Cools in Encouraging Sign for Fed Officials
Traders See September Rate Cut in Play With Fed Decision Next
The dollar bears wanted a stronger signal on September
US 10-year yields erase the non-farm payrolls pop. Touch lowest since April 1
Companies Unleash 2nd Biggest Stock Buyback Spree On Record Ahead Of Buyback Blackout This Friday
Goldman’s Trading Desk Is Modeling a Late Summer Correction
A tl;dr for annual reports: same is good, change is bad
https://www.ft.com/content/84ee693c-fa65-4ccc-a948-d063823fcb13
GameStop tanks with huge volume in call options owned by Roaring Kitty
Roaring Kitty may have cut GameStop options position, strategists say
CANADA
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem says not close to limit of divergence with Fed
CHINA
China’s Xi Jinping again calls for greater corporate governance at state-owned firms ahead of third plenum
China central bank promotes relending to speed up sales of housing stock
JAPAN
Japan's Q2 Business Survey Index (BSI): Large Manufacturing -1.0% (prior -6.7%)
AUSTRALIA
Australian May unemployment rate 4.0% (vs. 4.0% expected)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-may-unemployment-rate-40-vs-40-expected-20240613/
Australian household spending in May +1.1% m/m (prior -1%%) and +4.3% y/y (prior +2.7%)
GLOBAL SECTORS
AUTO’S
Tesla Presses EU for Lower Tariff on EVs Shipped in From China
Tesla could get special duties as part of EU's higher China EV tariffs
BANKS + FINANCE
JPMorgan sees investment banking revenue jumping as much as 30% in 2Q
UBS market strength puts Swiss industry on edge
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ubs-market-strength-puts-swiss-industry-edge-2024-06-12/
Italy's Antitrust closes probe into Intesa Sanpaolo
TMT
Apple to ‘Pay’ OpenAI for ChatGPT Through Distribution, Not Cash
Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim takes 3% stake in BT
https://www.ft.com/content/d1277957-b702-471d-be4b-78fe9fa8113a
OIL + GAS
WTI Falls After Unexpected Crude & Gasoline Inventory Builds; Biggest Imports In 6 Years
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-falls-after-unexpected-crude-gasoline-inventory-builds
EIA weekly US oil inventories +3730K vs -1025K expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/eia-weekly-us-oil-inventories-3730k-vs-1025k-expected-20240612/
World faces ‘staggering’ oil glut by end of the decade, energy watchdog warns
https://www.ft.com/content/cfb97534-b71b-490f-b626-6dc3487f595d
ANZ forecast for Brent crude oil to USD95/bbl (12 month horizon)
Citi sees a meaningful surplus of oil ahead, Brent to as low as USD55 /bbl
CRYPTO
Trump Wants Bitcoin "Made In The USA" After Hosting Mining Industry Heads
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/trump-wants-bitcoin-made-usa-after-hosting-mining-industry-heads
Trump wants all remaining Bitcoin "to be made in the US". Not as ludicrous as it sounds?