Mon 21st May
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia markets mostly fall after tech stocks lift Nasdaq to record highs
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/asia-markets.html
US stocks were choppy amid a lack of drivers ahead of this week's risk events
Tech outperforms amid NVDA tailwinds in thin trade ahead of pivotal risk events
New highs for the Nasdaq index. Nvidia tests its all-time close
https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-highs-for-the-nasdaq-index-20240520/
MAIN MACRO DUE
Key Events This Quiet Week: Nvidia Earnings, FOMC Minutes, And Tons Of Fed Speakers
Britain's inflation problem could be killed off this week
Canada CPI Preview: Consensus For Core Could Still See June Rate Cut Odds Build
Federal Reserve speakers on Tuesday include FOMC Vice Chair Williams
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is speaking on Tuesday
MAIN BONDS DUE
11:00: U.K. to Sell £2.25b of 4.75% 2043 Bonds
12:00: Finland to Sell 2.875% 2029 Bonds
12:00: Finland to Sell 3% 2034 Bonds
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
The relationship between Xi and Putin is built to last
https://www.ft.com/content/6459a746-e11e-4340-9cb5-ae3ebaa23e0e
Germany Warms to US Plan to Tap Frozen Russian Assets for Ukraine Funds
Virtually All Sanctioned Russian Oil Ships Idle and Empty Months After Sanctions
Russia Temporarily Allows Gasoline Exports as Local Demand Met
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
ICC prosecutor seeks arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders over alleged war crimes
https://www.ft.com/content/66e38a4e-cf6b-4643-83b0-024058ace7cc
Netanyahu says ICC prosecutor’s move absurd, comparison to Hamas shameful
Israel’s leaders put on the spot over Gaza war
https://www.ft.com/content/47d44e32-140f-4ea6-8daf-534837f751e4
Why is the ICC seeking arrest warrants against the leaders of Israel and Hamas?
https://www.ft.com/content/b67c24ec-9940-475f-87da-edf6fc15fa1f
Prosecuting Netanyahu Has Risks for International Criminal Court
https://www.wsj.com/world/prosecuting-netanyahu-has-risks-for-international-criminal-court-2f69bbd3
Biden attacks request by ICC prosecutor for Netanyahu arrest warrant
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/20/biden-icc-warrant-netanyahu
Democratic donors warn Joe Biden that Gaza stance threatens re-election bid
https://www.ft.com/content/88753ace-fa5a-4ed3-ba56-61b370688265
ICC Decision On Israel Could Jeopardize Ceasefire Deal - Blinken
https://marketnews.com/icc-decision-on-israel-could-jeopardize-ceasefire-deal-blinken
US defense secretary Austin wants Israel to carry out more precise strikes
Sky news Arabia:Israel should invade Lebanon to completely destroy Hesbollah
Iran Links US Sanctions With President Raisi's Death; White House 'Condolence' Says He Had "Lot of Blood On His Hands"
After President Raisi’s Death, Iran Wrestles With Two Succession Challenges
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-succession-politics-bb77748e
What the Death of Iran’s President Means for the Middle East
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
Yellen to call for US, Europe to stand together on Russia, Iran
https://www.reuters.com/world/yellen-call-us-europe-stand-together-russia-iran-2024-05-20/
Economists forecast $500bn annual hit from new Trump tariffs
https://www.ft.com/content/d44a3f1d-0fc0-4b70-a158-5a674e9ef6de
The all-American cheat sheet to Europe’s trade weak spots
https://www.ft.com/content/1857e8dc-e265-48f9-9b41-679081681fb2
China Is Winning the Minerals War
Taiwan's new President Lai Ching-te urges China to stop its ‘intimidation
Taiwan’s new leader William Lai takes the helm, and a tougher line
New Taiwan President Lai’s less conciliatory stance towards China is expected
William Lai’s critics cry foul over Taiwanese leader’s ‘tougher than expected’ inauguration speech
UK cannot afford to give ‘cold shoulder’ to China, says City minister
EUROPE
Strategists See Best of 2024 in Rearview Mirror
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/strategists-see-best-2024-rearview-mirror
UK
Bank of England could be close to cutting rates as inflation eases says deputy governor
https://www.ft.com/content/1f272ed0-6fb9-4bc4-9061-e2ecdcc22bda
London Still Europe’s Share Sale Capital Even With Few IPOs
Goldman says UK listings shake-up alone won't transform London IPO market
British stocks represent golden buying opportunity, says HSBC
US
Fed's Mester says forecast of 3 rate cuts this year is probably too many
Cleveland Fed Pres. Mester: Monetary policy is restrictive. Neutral rate may be higher
SF Fed Pres.Mary Daly: Not yet confident that inflation is coming down to 2%
Fed Gov. Barr: Q1 Inflation was disappointing. Did not provide confidence to ease policy
Fed Gov. Jefferson: Policy rate is in restrictive territory. Inflation still stubborn.
Fed Gov. Jefferson: Too early to say April CPI started a new trend
WSJTimiraos says Fed forecasts imply 6-month annualized rate of core PCE inflation at 3.2%
Anatomy Of The Bond Yield
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/inflation-expectations-had-it-right/
Morgan Stanley's Wilson says he sees the S&P 500 at 5,400 by Q2 2025 (previously 4,500)
JPMorgan’s (JPM) Marko Kolanovic Is Last Prominent Bear on Wall Street
Extreme Nasdaq Extremes
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/extreme-nasdaq-extremes
US stock settlement switch faces early resilience test
CHINA
China’s capital outflow surges to its highest since 2016
China's sweeping measures to prop up the property sector will need time
Slump in China's home prices, sales set to worsen this year - Reuters poll
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/slump-chinas-home-prices-sales-set-worsen-this-year-2024-05-20/
China State Planner says 50 fixed-asset investment projects worth 320bn yuan approved YTD
Why China is reluctant to make a much-needed shift
https://www.ft.com/content/a1bd39d8-bcf9-4521-bcfe-3575c6fab913
Xi’s Minister Probe Marks Biggest Shakeup to Cabinet in Years
JAPAN
Japan's Suzuki: Weak yen has positive and negative aspects
Corporate Japan’s $77bn in property gains offer target for activists
https://www.ft.com/content/9a52b7f1-101f-4e2a-bd92-22d0e65bfe40
AUSTRALIA
RBA minutes: Considered whether to raise rates
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rba-minutes-considered-whether-to-raise-rates-20240521/
Australia unleashes rent and energy relief as inflation bites voters
https://www.ft.com/content/4d61b020-4603-4fd0-ad21-e018b4cf79cf
Australia: Westpac consumer confidence index (May): -0.3% to 82.2 (prior -2.4% to 82.4)
GLOBAL SECTORS
AIRLINES/TRAVEL
Saudi Arabia spends $15bn on Airbus jets in race to dominate Gulf rivals
BANKS + FINANCE
Fed's Barr says regulators considering 'adjustments' to liquidity rules
Barr: Requiring discount window readiness could break 'stigma'
JPMorgan CEO is 'cautiously pessimistic' on economy, successors in focus
Jamie Dimon: JPMorgan stock is too expensive
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-stock-too-expensive.html
BASIC RES
Top Anglo shareholder backs break-up plan as clock ticks for BHP
https://www.ft.com/content/29cddb5f-449b-464a-b7f6-3d7bf577204a
PHARMA
GSK Hid Zantac’s Cancer Risks for Decades, Lab Claims in Whistleblower Suit
TMT
Microsoft announces new PCs with AI chips from Qualcomm
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/microsoft-qualcomm-ai-pcs-snapdragon-arm-processors.html
Apple Cuts iPhone 15 Prices In China By 20% As Demand Wanes
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/apple-cuts-iphone-15-prices-china-20-demand-wanes
METALS
IMF: Russian Federation raise gold holdings by 3.110 tonnes to 2.335.93 tonnes in April
China’s Gold Imports Slow After Record Prices Hit Demand
Copper Roars, Gold Soars To Record Highs As Metals Hit "History-Making Mode”
Copper: Bullish Exuberance Obscures Market Realities
Wall Street "Still Learning Role Of Uranium In Energy Transition, Suggest Upside In Space"
CRYPTO
Ether price jumps ahead of SEC’s ETF decision as speculation on approval rises
Spot Ether ETFs Will Come Down To A 5-Person Vote This Week: Gensler The Decider?
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/spot-ether-etfs-will-come-down-5-person-vote-week-gensler-decider
House Of Reps To Consider Two Crypto Bills This Week
https://marketnews.com/house-of-reps-to-consider-two-crypto-bills-this-week
Head of crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments steps down
https://www.ft.com/content/39012e80-e35c-4a8a-9921-71d1821a2a1d
New York reaches $2bn settlement with crypto lender Genesis over fraud allegations
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/20/genesis-crypto-fraud-settlement