Mon 17th Jun
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia stock markets live: PBOC MLF, China retail sales, unemployment
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/17/asia-stock-markets-.html
Stocks mixed & Dollar bid as French Finance Minister takes the limelight
Top Tech Trio Melts Up To Record High As Rest Of Market, Europe Burns
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/top-tech-trio-melts-record-high-rest-market-europe-burns
Weekly market update: It looks like volatility is here to stay
Weekly Market Outlook (17-21 June)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-17-21-june-20240616/
Weekend News Round Up
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/weekend-news-round-newsquawk-asia-pac-market-open-92
MAIN MACRO DUE
Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include BoE, SNB, US retail sales
Schedule for Week of June 16, 2024
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/schedule-for-week-of-june-16-2024.html
The Economic Week Ahead: June 17-21
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-economic-week-ahead-12/
Federal Reserve speakers Monday include Williams, Harker and Cook
European Central Bank President Lagarde and chief economist Lane speaking on Monday
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to appear in parliament Monday and Tuesday
Reserve Bank of Australia meet Monday & Tuesday, likely cash rate hold @ 4.35%, 12 yr high
RBA Seen Holding Key Rate at 12-Year High as Inflation Stays Hot
MAIN BONDS DUE
12:00: Belgium to sell 2.7% 2029 bonds
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Vladimir Putin sets out Ukraine ceasefire conditions
https://www.ft.com/content/984aee2b-fdca-4c52-8aef-ae3f1cab5898
80 countries at Swiss conference agree territorial integrity of Ukraine must be basis of any peace
Swiss Summit Says Ukraine's 'Territorial Integrity' Must Be Basis Of Any Peace
Ukraine summit strives for broad consensus to lean on Russia to end war
Ukrainians Want Peace With Russia, But Only on Their Terms
G7 threatens China with further sanctions over Russia war support
https://www.ft.com/content/cf7cb859-97a9-4973-b75a-7c680fc37b66
US Nuclear Attack Sub, Canadian Warship In Cuba Just Behind Russian Naval Group
North Korea Reportedly Sending Shipments Of 5 Million Artillery Shells To Russia
Russia overtook US as gas supplier to Europe in May
https://www.ft.com/content/15e7b892-c4f3-45b8-b375-80ef52e4b83c
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
Israeli military announces daily ‘tactical pause’ in southern Gaza to allow in aid
Benjamin Netanyahu denounces Israel military’s ‘tactical pause’ plan
https://www.ft.com/content/faed2a73-1cef-437c-9596-eb816d0b8dc5
WH Hochstein To Travel To Israel Monday To Calm Tensions w/Hezbollah
https://marketnews.com/wh-hochstein-to-travel-to-israel-monday-to-calm-tensions-w-hezbollah
US Worried Israel Is Rushing Into War With Hezbollah With No Clear Strategy
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-worried-israel-rushing-war-hezbollah-no-clear-strategy
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
Global spending on nuclear weapons up 13% in record rise
China expanding nuclear arsenal faster than any other country, report says, but still lags behind US and Russia
Xi Jinping claimed US wants China to attack Taiwan
https://www.ft.com/content/7d6ca06c-d098-4a48-818e-112b97a9497a
Taiwan’s Lai Ching-te calls on army to shed nationalist legacy to meet China threat
https://www.ft.com/content/dba4744c-f157-4a5d-ae6f-113cdf0767f2
Taiwan Is One-Upping Ukraine's Navy to Defeat a Chinese Invasion
China says Philippines ship has collided with a Chinese vessel in the South China Sea
US Signs $23 Billion F-16 Deal With Turkey
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-signs-23-billion-f-16-deal-turkey
NATO Expansion: A New Detailed Timeline
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nato-expansion-new-detailed-timeline
Military Draft Coming? House Passes Measure To Automatically Register Men For Selective Service
Germany Could Soon Be Screening 18-Year-Olds To Boost Military Recruits
Global defence groups hiring at fastest rate in decades amid record orders
https://www.ft.com/content/9625dbaa-5d36-4bee-8610-f16ab7ad6b1d
UBS says China expects an intensifying trade war if Trump wins 2024 election
Chinese automakers overtake U.S. rivals in sales for the first time
EU Tariffs Won’t Protect Automakers, Says German Chamber in China
German firms hope EU-China tariff talks can help dodge shake-up in EV business
Why Chinese EV tariffs may not work
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/15/why-chinese-ev-tariffs-may-not-work.html
The EU has just put its car industry on the road to destruction
Mario Draghi says Europe must not be ‘passive’ in face of China import threa
https://www.ft.com/content/6e548f03-7e6c-4dd6-ad8c-cd8ffa6ea0d8
Corporate Tax Rate Spurs Political Fight With More Than $1 Trillion at Stake
https://www.wsj.com/politics/corporate-tax-rate-election-53de5180
Biden’s hopes for G7 foreign policy success undermined by Gaza war
https://www.ft.com/content/e95b02a8-fe91-460f-b38e-3c6f0d63f5f4
EUROPE
ECB's Lagarde: Unless we have a major shock, target is inflation to hit 2% in H2 2025
ECB's Kazaks says mustn’t allow inflation to remain above 2% into 2026
Macron Has Gambled... And Lost
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/macron-has-gambled-and-lost
Macron's gamble is looking like a disaster as new poll released
France's Macron: Economic programs by two extremists blocks are not realistic
French Election: Le Pen to Work With Macron, Appealing to France’s Moderates
French leftists move to shore up alliance ahead of snap elections
https://www.ft.com/content/eefc9166-ce31-49ee-9226-35b26ee1ed26
France’s new leftwing bloc begins to crack ahead of snap elections
https://www.ft.com/content/3afda33f-54ef-48dd-852a-21b8320df762
French Election: Safeguards Against Le Pen’s Far-Right Are Starting to Unravel
The relentless rise of France’s far right
https://www.ft.com/content/b7b5be40-e6c6-48c1-bfb6-4d787f4376ae
Thousands Protest Against Far Right Across France
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/thousands-protest-against-far-right-across-france-e229babe
French stocks suffer worst week since 2022 over fears of populist poll win
https://www.ft.com/content/b9fdc199-0bfc-47f2-9356-86b2fd295e26
Macron’s curveball unsettles markets
https://www.ft.com/content/71646bba-a892-457e-a700-b71ff10c19ad
City traders bet against French bonds as debt crisis looms
France is heading for a financial crisis that could bring down the eurozone
ECB's Lagarde dodges question about French market turmoil
ECB in no rush to discuss French bond rescue - sources
UK
The Bank of England should ignore politics and just cut rates
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/15/bank-of-england-should-ignore-politics-cut-rates/
Taylor Swift's London Eras Tour could delay Bank of England rate cut
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/taylor-swift-london-eras-tour-delay-bank-of-england-rate-cut.html
UK Election: Latest Polls Show Conservatives Headed for Wipeout
Tories face 'electoral extinction' with support at lowest since Theresa May's final days
Sketchy Politics: the extinction election?
https://www.ft.com/video/a8f6da9c-b068-4209-88f5-987324c268fb
Rishi Sunak refuses to change Tory strategy after Reform ‘crossover’ poll
https://www.ft.com/content/b4b24e51-d63f-4b79-bb19-189cba6e9915
Farage's Reform UK Party Overtakes Sunak's Conservatives: Poll
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/farages-reform-uk-party-overtakes-sunaks-conservatives-poll
Why Reform will struggle to win any seats – despite beating the Tories in the polls
Tories and Labour on course for lowest share of the vote since 1945
Robert Jenrick: I share voters' frustrations but backing Reform means a Labour dictatorship
Tory leadership hopefuls ‘already lobbying’ to replace Sunak
Labour sends activists to 13 seats where it fears losing Muslim voters over Gaza
Public anger over sewage boosts Lib Dems’ chances in key Tory battlegrounds
https://www.ft.com/content/0d3b538c-003d-40a0-9d02-a42426b05c5f
Suella Braverman: Migration to blame for Tories' electoral woes – I warned Rishi Sunak to tackle it
Keir Starmer says he is prepared to make enemies to improve economy
https://www.ft.com/content/b28e06e8-09cf-4b7a-8e6b-f465ff40442e
A dash for growth: the shadow chancellor prepares for government
https://www.ft.com/content/d92d34eb-7ac9-4a8f-a287-9e499d710c4c
Jeremy Hunt: Economic growth calls for more than stability — it demands ambition
https://www.ft.com/content/5fff4953-ba97-478b-9a0d-47ab705303dd
Rachel Reeves: Wealth creation will be the defining mission of the Labour government
https://www.ft.com/content/4c50b962-a249-4ca3-9e15-5a1f8e404557
Rachel Reeves to seek ‘improved’ UK-EU trade terms if Labour wins election
https://www.ft.com/content/d0a1f720-24a7-4cbb-80ce-da9e96c592f8
Six policy areas in Labour manifesto being scrutinised by business
https://www.ft.com/content/e08cd1c8-9190-4926-8f90-1eabdb1a5c0c
UK Election Is Being Shaped by Bond Market's 2022 Meltdown Under Liz Truss
Starmer isn't prepared for the inevitable union showdown
Starmer faces further calls for Labour to axe two-child benefit cap
Beware Farage's £40bn raid on banks – there is no such thing as a free lunch
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/16/beware-farage-bank-of-england-policy-no-free-lunch/
UK house prices remain near record high with little sign of election impact
US
Fed's Kashkari says 'reasonable' to predict December rate cut
Fed's Mester: We are starting to see inflation move down again after stalling
Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee CPI data this week was very good
Fed's Goolsbee Wants 'A Lot' More Months Like May
https://marketnews.com/mni-brief-fed-s-goolsbee-wants-a-lot-more-months-like-may
Good Chance Fed Won't Cut Rates In 2024-Plosser
https://marketnews.com/mni-interview-good-chance-fed-won-t-cut-rates-in-2024-plosser
Fed's Conservative Inflation Projections Could Mean Two Rate Cuts - Northern Trust
June US UMich June prelim consumer sentiment 65.6 vs 72.0 expected
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls to 7-Month Low
US import prices -0.4% vs +0.1% expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-import-prices-04-vs-01-expected-20240614/
Bond traders worry liquidity will worsen as US market size grows
US equity funds saw largest weekly outflow in 18 months ahead of Fed decision
Evercore raised year-end forecast on S&P500 Index to 6,000 (and 7000 possible by end 2025)
Investors Fear Long Stretch of Calm in Markets Can’t Last
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/investors-fear-long-stretch-of-calm-in-markets-cant-last-1a44152d
This Week in Earnings 24Q1
https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2024/06/this-week-in-earnings-24q1-june-14-2024/
S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 24Q1
https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2024/06/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-24q1-june-14-2024/
CHINA
People's Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%)
China's PBOC Leaves Key Rate Unchanged on Yuan (CNY USD) Pressure, Liquidity
China interest rate cuts face internal and external constraints
China May Industrial output +5.6% y/y (expected +6.0%) Retail sales +3.7% (3.0% exp)
China May retail sales beat expectations, other metrics miss
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/17/china-may-retail-sales-beat-expectations-other-metrics-miss.html
China May new home prices -0.7% m/m and -3.9% y/y
https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-may-new-home-prices-07-mm-and-39-yy-20240617/
China's property investment slump worsens in January-May
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-property-investment-slump-worsens-january-may-2024-06-17/
China’s property fall overshadows spending rebound in May, challenging Beijing’s economic targets
China Home Prices Slump Despite More Property Market Stimulus
China new bank loans rise far less than expected in May as demand wobbles
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-new-bank-loans-rise-far-less-than-expected-may-2024-06-14/
Early repayments shrink China’s mortgage-backed securities market by 65%
https://www.ft.com/content/49497186-b53b-42a4-b092-4bda8633d70f
China regulator announces more curbs on short-selling
https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-regulator-announces-more-curbs-on-short-selling-20240616/
JAPAN
Bank of Japan to ‘significantly’ scale back bond buying in shift on ultra-loose policy
https://www.ft.com/content/b7a30ddb-b415-4f49-8803-7d83628511f8
Japan Core Machinery Orders (April) -2.9% m/m (vs. expected -3.1%)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-core-machinery-orders-april-29-mm-vs-expected-31-20240616/
Japan's Cabinet Office maintains its assessment on machinery orders
GLOBAL SECTORS
AUTO’S
Elon Musk takes victory lap after 77% of Tesla shareholder votes back his $56bn pay
https://www.ft.com/content/86a238ba-5a2b-4960-806d-df5cbe796c05
BANKS + FINANCE
Sabadell pauses closing of Nexi deal following BBVA bid, sources say
TMT
Meta Says Its AI in Europe Will Be Worse Than in America. Here's Why
https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-ai-europe-regulations-privacy-facebook-instagram-2024-6
Apple set to be first Big Tech group to face charges under EU digital law
https://www.ft.com/content/31a996d5-b472-4357-953e-ace078494604
Friday trading could trigger $10 billion rush of demand for Nvidia shares
METALS
Industrial Metals Deepen Retreat After Mixed China Economic Data
CRYPTO
Bitcoin dips into the $65,000 level to end the week
Advisors ‘wary’ of bitcoin ETFs are on slow adoption journey, says BlackRock exec
Inside latest crypto firm paying billions to end legal troubles
Nigeria drops tax charges against Binance executives
https://www.ft.com/content/3e72f9ad-7950-4e9e-9ae7-72ea67263030