Mon 10th Jun
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Hong Kong, Australia and China are out
Asia markets live updates: BOJ decision, China, India inflation
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/10/asia-markets-live-updates-boj-decision-china-india-inflation.html
Asia shares stumble; political uncertainty grips euro
Hot NFP sees traders pare Fed rate cut bets ahead of CPI and FOMC
Market backs off on hopes for interest rate cuts following strong jobs report
Weekend News Round Up
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/weekend-news-round-newsquawk-asia-pac-market-open-91
MAIN MACRO DUE
Schedule for Week of June 9, 2024
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/schedule-for-week-of-june-9-2024.html
The Economic Week Ahead: June 10-14
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-economic-week-ahead-june-10-14/
Stock market faces midweek double whammy: Fed decision follows CPI inflation
Wall St Week Ahead-Inflation, Fed meeting to give clues for US market direction
What will be the Federal Reserve’s long-term outlook for interest rates?
https://www.ft.com/content/bd3ac494-eb97-42f0-860d-b9e7cd667e20
FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/fomc-preview-no-change-to-fed-funds-rate.html
Goldman Sachs preview the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this week - no cut, but ...
Fed won’t move rates this week, but economists will be watching for clues
MAIN BONDS DUE
None
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
How Ukraine's missile onslaught rattled Putin – but failed to wake the West
Ukraine says it hit latest-generation Russian fighter jet for first time
Like Russia, Ukraine Is Now Recruiting Soldiers From Prisons
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-military-recruit-convict-soldiers-e1544c81
Putin Is Running Out of Time to Achieve Breakthrough in Ukraine
Diplomatic creativity needed to resolve Russian asset plan, official says
Russia showcases economy as Ukraine war takes a back seat
Bank of Russia Governor Nabiullina Tells Putin What He Doesn't Want to Hea
Russia: Putin says nearly 40% of Russian trade turnover is in rubles
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
IDF Frees 4 Hostages In Biggest Gaza Rescue Op Since War Began
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/idf-frees-4-hostages-biggest-gaza-rescue-op-war-began
Israel’s raid to free hostages takes ‘horrific’ toll on central Gaza
https://www.ft.com/content/95ecf8ea-1d56-4125-be9e-2f51f98216bc
US Army's Failure-Prone Pier Connected To Gaza Beach Again After Breaking Apart
Netanyahu’s Chief Rival Quits Israeli Government to Try to Topple It
Risking PR Disaster, Netanyahu To Address Congress On July 24
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/risking-pr-disaster-netanyahu-address-congress-july-24
Biden Enlisted Qatar and Egypt to Pressure Hamas. It Backfired
U.S. to Offer Landmark Defense Treaty to Saudi Arabia in Effort to Spur Israel Normalization Deal
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/us-saudi-arabia-defense-treaty-israel-palestine-e2cc1821
Iran promotes hardliners as presidential candidates
https://www.ft.com/content/e08c28af-4949-4eb5-8778-2e6e89a05a24
Iran OKs 6 candidates for presidential race, but again blocks Ahmadinejad
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
China urges US to ‘reflect’ on nuclear arms policy
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3265973/china-urges-us-reflect-nuclear-arms-policy
China’s EV makers return to fast lane helped by government subsidies tailwind
EU expected to impose import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/09/eu-import-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles
European companies step up efforts to decouple from China
https://www.ft.com/content/fb448978-e4ff-4f3e-b650-13fda73f58a9
US Bombers Drop Live Munitions In Threat To North Korea
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-bombers-drop-live-munitions-threat-north-korea
Biden's Approval Rating Hits New Low, 538
https://marketnews.com/biden-s-approval-rating-hits-new-low-538
Joe Biden cuts Donald Trump’s lead on handling of US economy
https://www.ft.com/content/ea10c85a-3cda-4bee-8cb2-b0259af478ee
Trump probation interview set for Monday
https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-probation-interview-set-for-monday-20240609/
GLOBAL/GENERAL
America's Economic Plan Will Hurt World Economy, Global Stock Markets
Global equity funds rack up robust weekly inflows on rate cut bets
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/global-markets-flows-graphic-2024-06-07/
Former Allianz employee pleads guilty to fraud over $7-billion funds collapse
EUROPE
ECB’s Lagarde Says Fight Against High Inflation Isn’t Over Yet
Lagarde faces tough time 'in charge' of ECB's message
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/lagarde-faces-tough-time-in-charge-ecbs-message-2024-06-07/
ECB's Holzmann: I was the only one against a rate cut
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-holzmann-i-was-the-only-one-against-a-rate-cut-20240607/
ECB's Holzmann says further rate cuts by the Bank could slam EUR and spike inflation
ECB Rate Cut Was Logical After Inflation Retreat, Nagel Says
ECB's Nagel: The decision to cut rates was not premature
ECB's de Guindos: Inflation is to be around 2% next year
ECB's Rehn: Inflation will continue to decline
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-rehn-inflation-will-continue-to-decline-20240607/
ECB's Schnabel: We cannot pre-commit to a particular rate path
ECB's Villeroy: We will move at appropriate pace on rate cuts
ECB's Centeno: The message is one of confidence in the disinflation process
PIMCO forecast another two European Central Bank rate cuts this year, September & December
Hedge funds raise bets against European government bonds to two-year high
https://www.ft.com/content/d9dbfd65-f9c7-4300-8b3c-00577b76a630
ECB’s Preferred Pay Gauge Accelerates in New Inflation Warning
The right-wing surge in EU Parliament could have implications for Europe and beyond
EU Elections: Macron’s Group Thrashed by Far-Right Le Pen’s Party
Right-Wing Tsunami: France "Stunned" After Macron Announces Snap Elections Following Crushing Defeat In European Parliament Vote
Emmanuel Macron gambles on snap French election after Marine Le Pen victory in EU vote
https://www.ft.com/content/5a523bd1-cd2d-411f-8de2-4808271ceedc
French vote will decide fate of Europe’s rampart against far-right
https://www.ft.com/content/609a083e-2d20-41f3-bffc-38d9ebd00890
Euro slips to one-month low as Macron calls French election
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/euro-slips-to-one-month-low-as-macron-calls-french-election
Stock investors scout out Europe's rate-cut winners |
UK
Four reasons why interest rate cuts could stay higher for longe
UK unemployment rising at fastest pace of OECD countries, analysis shows
Record immigration has failed to raise living standards in Britain, economists find
The immigration mess is a nightmare for both the Tories and Labour
https://www.ft.com/content/9f14f311-f967-4200-bcd1-d37782d91d33
Labour has largest lead over Tories since March, poll shows
Labour and Tories renew clashes in ill-tempered second election debate
Penny Mordaunt concedes Tories have overseen record tax rises
https://www.ft.com/content/66262b4b-aa18-4d62-bf58-775f289dfe13
‘The stupidest of stupid ideas’: Rishi Sunak’s D-Day snub sparks Tory outra
https://www.ft.com/content/0596349e-2b33-4a84-a16b-002fdeb4bf12
Rishi Sunak handed gift to Reform with D-Day exit, say senior Tories
https://www.ft.com/content/ff1adb5d-cf46-48ff-8b02-b8d4a206b0f8
Sunak’s Conservative Campaign in Disarray After Farage Entry, D-Day Blunder
The seeds of the Tory collapse were sown in 2019
https://www.ft.com/content/e09c3a03-2cd8-47de-9c9a-7e9726fbb1e3
Tories struggle to secure backing of big business as campaign falters
https://www.ft.com/content/456d4731-8093-4572-bfba-0b4626c1e468
Key union withholds support for Labour’s election manifesto
https://www.ft.com/content/8fe9e752-383d-4480-8174-a055c772e7c0
UK households face £800 annual tax rise after election, warns think-tank
https://www.ft.com/content/2a957523-c747-4191-be1d-bf174b2e359a
Can Labour raise more money without touching the big taxes?
https://www.ft.com/content/db497afc-7c8d-476e-a777-33afd1f3582d
Sunak vows £12bn in welfare cuts as part of back-to-work ‘moral mission’
https://www.ft.com/content/2fa592d0-5a05-4484-b365-ba65cdf94c86
UK’s Right-Wing Reform Party Floats Overhaul of BOE’s QE Program
Poll Suggests Nigel Farage Top Pick to Succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory Leader
Angela Rayner's 'good news' on housing should terrify the Tories
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/08/angela-rayner-housing-reforms-terrify-tories/
Tories to deliver stamp duty boost for first-time buyers
Europe still wants to punish Britain for Brexit – and Starmer knows it
Labour abandons plans to bring back lifetime cap on tax-free pensions savings
https://www.ft.com/content/1555f473-0b8a-488e-9e47-73d57d5f2f36
UK house prices stabilise as rising wages and consumer confidence steady market
Investors are already getting out of Labour-landslide Britain
Betting on general election outcomes
https://www.ft.com/content/bd66472e-e652-4279-9ea1-f4bc435fa1ac
FTSE giant Ashtead weighs £25bn switch to US in fresh blow to London
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/08/ftse-100-ashtead-25billion-switch-to-us-from-london/
US
JP Morgan expect a dovish Federal Reserve Chair Powell after Wednesday's FOMC statement
JP Morgan shifted their forecast for the first FOMC rate cut from July to November
Americans Really, Really Hate Inflation—and That’s a Big Problem for the Fed
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/americans-inflation-target-fed-c1fc7857
IMF warns US on ballooning fiscal burden
https://www.ft.com/content/134cc7f3-f2df-43c9-b1b1-e58e6363781a
3 Reasons Fed Tightening Isn’t Walloping US Financial Markets
US May non-farm payrolls 272K vs +185K expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-non-farm-payrolls-272k-vs-185k-expected-20240607/
US Payroll Gains and Unemployment Rate Both Pick Up at Same Time
Lael Brainard (NEC director): US jobs report is good news for American workers
Nick Timiraos from WSJ: What does jobs report mean to Fed? Not much.
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Years
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inside-most-ridiculous-jobs-report-years
Comments on May Employment Report
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/comments-on-may-employment-report.html
US Wage-Price Spiral Is Still Persistent
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-wage-price-spiral-still-persistent
Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 rises to 3.1% versus 2.8% yesterday
US bond funds gain robust weekly inflow as yields ease
Market Call: Blue Angels Flying High
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-30/
CrowdStrike, KKR, GoDaddy to join benchmark S&P 500
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/crowdstrike-kkr-godaddy-join-benchmark-sp-500-2024-06-07/
Expecting Record S&P 500 Earnings Ahead
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/deep-dive-expecting-record-s-p-500-earnings-ahead/
S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 24Q1
https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2024/06/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-24q1-june-7-2024/
Beneath the Calm Market, Stocks Are Going Haywire
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/beneath-the-calm-market-stocks-are-going-haywire-7d65fe57
GameStop’s stock suffers worst day since 2021 despite Roaring Kitty livestream
GameStop (GME) Q1 earnings, plans to sell more stock
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/07/gamestop-gme-q1-earnings.html
CANADA
Canada May employment change 26.7k vs 22.5k expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-may-employment-change-267k-vs-225k-expected-20240607/
INDIA
Narendra Modi sworn in as Indian prime minister for third term
https://www.ft.com/content/7648f8b8-b84a-4b07-88bd-f70532b0d322
Retail traders push India stock option volumes above S&P 500
https://www.ft.com/content/d1daf777-d10c-44d8-b570-462f6c4122eb
CHINA
Hong Kong won't shut stock market during typhoons and rain: reports
JAPAN
Japan's Q1 GDP (revised) -1.8% (annualized) - massive economic slump
https://www.forexlive.com/news/japans-q1-gdp-revised-18-annualized-massive-economic-slump-20240609/
Japan economic 'roadmap' leak getting another outing after disastrous economic slump data
Nikkei: Bank of Japan will 'consider' whether to scale back its monthly JGB purchases
Investors Brace for Volatility as BOJ Seeks to Cut Bond Buying
MEXICO
Mexico’s peso hit by election fallout as left-wing party cements its power
https://www.ft.com/content/fae7eca4-79e1-4c89-92f3-2e56de3188d9
Mexico investors worry lopsided vote could threaten rule of law
GLOBAL SECTORS
AIRLINES/TRAVEL
Elliott Takes Big Stake in Southwest Airlines
https://www.wsj.com/finance/elliott-takes-big-stake-in-southwest-airlines-bce80796
AUTO’S
Volvo shifting production of Chinese-made electric vehicles to Europe, to avoid tariffs
BANKS + FINANCE
Banks say growing reliance on Big Tech for AI carries new risks
US Domestic Bank Deposits Tumble As Money-Market Fund Assets Near Record-High Again
Moody's puts six US regional banks on downgrade review over CRE exposure
TMT
Apple's WWDC 2024: Expect AI News, Siri Updates, New Homes Screen, and More
METALS
Gold Overtakes Euro in Global International Reservesb
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-overtakes-euro-global-international-reserves
Gold Slumps as China’s Central Bank Halts 18-Month Buying Spree
Gold miners struggle with excavating more, says World Gold Council
Copper Breaks Trend Line As Trafigura Questions Spike, Hedge Funds Bet Big
OIL + GAS
Goldman Sachs oil forecast - see USD90/bbl Brent ceiling base case, risk to downside
CRYPTO
Bitcoin in the red to end the week after better-than-expected May jobs report:
"New law grants US president power to block digital asset access"
http://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2024/06/new-law-grants-us-president-power-to.html