Friday 24th May
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asia markets live updates: Japan CPI, Nvidia earnings
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/24/asia-markets-live-updates-japan-cpi-nvidia-earnings-.html
US stocks were pressured and yields climbed on strong PMI data
Stocks fade NVDA induced upside as yields rise on hot US PMI data
US stocks sink as robust economic data offsets Nvidia cheer
https://www.ft.com/content/20697f42-83fa-423e-8678-dc1b4191a2fe
MAIN MACRO DUE
Friday: Durable Goods
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/friday-durable-goods.html
Yellen and Lagarde to meet on Friday
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/yellen-and-lagarde-to-meet-on-friday-20240524/
Federal Reserve speakers on Friday include Governor Waller - preview
European Central Bank speakers on Friday include Schnabel and de Cos
Swiss National Bank Chair Jordan is on the speaking calendar Friday
Heads up reminder - Monday is a US market holiday - here is what is open and when
MAIN BONDS DUE
None
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Russia targets Ukraine’s Kharkiv region in deadly missile attack
https://www.ft.com/content/1f422495-848a-4dbb-aa0f-29586f6fe4b8
Bipartisan Calls Grow For Ukraine To Hit Russian Territory With US Arms
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/bipartisan-calls-grow-ukraine-hit-russian-territory-us-arms
Russia arrests fourth senior defence figure
https://www.ft.com/content/735f2750-a4e9-43c4-8ccc-5720ec9f37b2
No Decision On Use Of Frozen Russian Assets Expected At G7 Meeting
https://marketnews.com/no-decision-on-use-of-frozen-russian-assets-expected-at-g7-meeting-lindner
Russia says EU will feel 'full measure' of retaliation over frozen assets plan
G7 officials play down expectations on details of loan for Ukraine
Russia set to raise corporate profit tax but abolish exchange-rate export duties
EU seeks to stop Russia’s imports of western luxury cars via Belarus
https://www.ft.com/content/792bc0e4-5208-4839-aa63-f5f6c7bf78d8
China’s exporters, eager for Russia foothold, tread lightly to avoid financial bear trap
Russian oligarch seeks damages from Luxembourg on $15bn assets
https://www.ft.com/content/627ae923-6d95-4f5a-be1e-f22b9aa66e41
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
War Cabinet Approves Resumption Of Truce Talks As Israeli Forces Plunge Deeper Into Rafah
Israel launches deadly Gaza strikes, says ready for new truce talks
Blinken Working With Congress To Punish Hague-Based ICC
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/blinken-working-congress-punish-hague-based-icc
Janet Yellen warns Israel not to cancel waiver for Palestinian banks
https://www.ft.com/content/409f49a5-7c3f-4768-992b-30606d72ae16
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
Western countries are gearing up for war for the first time in decades
US, China and EU Jockey for Dominance in New Era of Trade Protectionism
China Tariffs: Why Biden Is Doubling Down on Trump’s Levies
Tesla CEO Elon Musk says he favors 'no tariffs' on Chinese EVs
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/23/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-says-he-favors-no-tariffs-on-chinese-evs.html
Mainland Chinese forces focus on control and occupation in day 2 of military drills around Taiwan
China’s ‘punishment’ drills around Taiwan likely to grow bigger and more dangerous
Current PLA Drills Around Taiwan Are Bigger In Scope Than Exercises Triggered By Pelosi
US, EU and other democracies slam mainland China for military drills around Taiwan, urge ‘restraint’
Nearly 20% Of Voters Likely To Change Their Mind On Presidential Choice
https://marketnews.com/nearly-20-of-voters-likely-to-change-their-mind-on-presidential-choice
Ranking Trump's Vice-Presidential Options
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ranking-trumps-vice-presidential-options
GLOBAL/GENERAL
G-7 Meeting: Uneven Global Economy Vex Finance Ministers, Central Bankers
POLL Global stocks fatigued from bull run, but no correction expected
India, Japan are bright spots in Asia's equity and M&A markets: JPMorgan
EUROPE
ECBs Villeroy: Latest wage data was a bit above expectations but due to German
Eurozone consumer confidence (flash) for May -14.3 versus -14.2 estimate
UK
Sunak suffers series of setbacks on first day of UK election campaign
https://www.ft.com/content/35b21a4e-664d-4820-a6b4-439b82013272
Rishi Sunak admits no Rwanda asylum flights will depart before election
https://www.ft.com/content/35b21a4e-664d-4820-a6b4-439b82013272
Rishi Sunak’s flagship smoking ban dropped ahead of UK election
https://www.ft.com/content/8f2c0074-769e-4517-aec5-54d0799dd599
Key moments ahead in the UK election campaign
https://www.ft.com/content/189d6750-1f78-43ef-9a24-e0fbcd39fe09
Economic growth slows as Britain heads towards election
Economic feel-bad factor hangs over the UK election
https://www.ft.com/content/9322b53a-3b45-491c-9daa-9bb95a3563fc
Five reasons why people feel poorer under Sunak
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/23/reasons-why-people-poorer-under-rishi-sunak/
Net migration to UK falls 10% to 685,000
https://www.ft.com/content/67cfd5c4-e79f-4f48-9226-dc592aa6aa74
Nigel Farage will not stand as Reform candidate in UK general election
https://www.ft.com/content/e0724831-23e4-4c58-805c-59f2403c929a
Who is Keir Starmer? The Labour Leader Who Could Become the Next U.K. Prime Minister
https://www.wsj.com/world/uk/keir-starmer-labour-uk-election-b31d8e9a
How Starmer could throw away a 20-point lead
‘Mild positive’: markets greet prospect of Labour landslide with calm
‘WhaT doeS tHe ElecTIoN meaN for the FTSE?’
https://www.ft.com/content/1d2dee45-4107-4773-a332-0219bb20b4d1
A sell-side guide to the economically inconsequential UK election
https://www.ft.com/content/bf9fcc9c-6b19-40fc-9929-0176681062cd
British business decisions which hinge on election outcome
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/british-business-decisions-which-hinge-election-outcome-2024-05-23/
Sighs of relief will be coming from the Treasury and BoE
https://www.ft.com/content/cabea40e-6a39-4d2b-8f00-49da8b19a2b3
Goldman Sachs expect a Bank of England 25bp rate cut in August (previously tipping June)
JP Morgan on UK CPI (risk tilted to upside) say BoE may not be able to ease at all in 2024
UK data - May Consumer confidence -17 (expected -18)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-data-may-consumer-confidence-17-expected-18-20240523/
UK consumer confidence hits two-year high in May
https://www.ft.com/content/4e8d4d23-3a95-4190-af60-cdd2f1103e9a
US
Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic: Last couple inflation numbers suggested going back to 2%
Fed's Bostic- Pent-Up Exuberance Calls for Patience
https://marketnews.com/mni-brief-fed-s-bostic-pent-up-exuberance-calls-for-patience
JPM Dimon: Can't rule out U.S. hard landing, stagflation is worst outcome
DoubleLine CEO expects imminent US recession, government debt surge
Unemployment Claims Down 8K, Better Than Expected
US Initial Jobless Claims Refuse To Budge From Near Record Lows
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-initial-jobless-claims-refuse-budge-near-record-lows
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Flat Activity in May
US New Home Sales Tumbled In April Amid Further Downward Revisions…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-new-home-sales-tumbled-april-amid-further-downward-revisions
S&P Global Says US Business Activity Is At Its Strongest In Two Years, But…
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/sp-global-says-us-business-activity-its-strongest-two-years
Will Nvidia Trump The Fed?
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/nvidia-trumps-the-fed/
Dow transportation stocks are ‘area of potential concern’ for stock-market bulls
UBS raise its S&P 500 forecast as high as 5600, 4 reasons for support
If CEOs Are Right, Things Can Only Get Better For US Earnings' But…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-ceos-are-right-things-can-only-get-better-us-earnings
Russell 2000 Earnings Dashboard 24Q1
https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2024/05/russell-2000-earnings-dashboard-24q1-may-23-2024/
CANADA
INDIA
Modi facing far more opposition than anticipated in ongoing election, say analysts
Indian Stocks Hit Record on Signs Foreigners Ending Bearish View
CHINA
China signals economy is priority as Xi Jinping meets business leaders ahead of key party meeting
JAPAN
Japan CPI data for April 2024 - all three measures come in lower than in March
Japan’s Inflation Cools as BOJ Waits for Wage Gains to Kick In
10 year Japanese Government Bond yield rises higher, to 1.005%, highest since April 2012
Japan's Economy is Stirring to Life. So Why is the Yen Weak
Japan’s new widowmaker trade - long yen
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/japans-new-widowmaker-trade-long-yen-20240523/
AUSTRALIA
Goldman Sachs "base case is for the RBA to start easing in November 2024"
ARGENTINA
Argentina’s peso plunges in warning light for Milei
https://www.ft.com/content/401a85e5-e144-496d-b329-ab9d2eabaecd
GLOBAL SECTORS
AIRLINES/TRAVEL
Boeing Shares Hit Turbulence After CFO Says Q2 Deliveries Will Be Similar To Q1 Amid Regulatory Limbo In China
Nearly 300 Boeing 777s Used By United & American Airlines At Risk For 'Exploding' Fuel Tanks
Boeing’s cash-flow woes hit company’s bonds, raising fears of a debt downgrade
BANKS + FINANCE
Jamie Dimon admits to ‘tough’ going for JPMorgan in China
https://www.ft.com/content/25d17ea1-17e8-4f6a-9da4-9f726970d4e4
Morgan Stanley executive chairman James Gorman will step down at year end
UBS agrees with most tougher rules pitched by Swiss government, CEO says
UK finance ministry respecting "due process" on NatWest share sale
Prudential chair admits ‘frustrating and disappointing’ share performance
https://www.ft.com/content/072823b4-a048-4316-972a-af065b2d0b2d
BASIC RES
BHP Investors See Anglo American Within Reach as Talks Begin
Anglo’s Big Shareholders Back Miner’s Stance on BHP Takeover Talks
How likely is a BHP-Anglo merger now?
https://www.ft.com/content/3489c69f-3696-4609-a5a6-56cd97ae0888
TMT
NVDA Tops $2.5 Trillion As Traders Sell Everything Else On 'Good News'
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nvda-tops-25-trillion-traders-sell-everything-else-good-news
Nvidia’s Business Is Booming. Here’s What Could Slow It Down
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidias-business-is-booming-heres-what-could-slow-it-down-fd5ffa14
China's SMIC is now world's third-largest chip foundry: Counterpoint
Alibaba's Hong Kong shares drop 5% after report of possible $5 billion convertible bond sale
METALS
Copper Prices To Fall, Chinese Demand To Remain Flat
https://marketnews.com/mni-copper-prices-to-fall-chinese-demand-to-remain-flat
OIL + GAS
WTI, Brent fall for fourth day
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/23/crude-oil-prices-today-wti-brent-rise-after-three-day-decline-.html
CRYPTO
SEC Approves Spot Ether ETFs In Major Crypto Victory
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/sec-approves-spot-ether-etfs-major-crypto-victory