Friday 21st June
OVERNIGHT (ASIA + US)
Asian shares end the week with a whimper, yen struggles
Asia stock markets live: Japan CPI misses estimates
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/21/asia-markets.html
US stock markets were mostly lower amid tech weakness, firmer yields and soft data ahead of quad witching
Tech weakness hits stocks ahead of quad-witching
Bullion & Black Gold Bid But 'Bad News' Was Bad News For Big-Tech
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullion-black-gold-bid-bad-news-was-bad-news-big-tech
MAIN MACRO DUE
Friday: Existing Home Sales
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/friday-existing-home-sales.html
Bank of Spain Deputy Governor speaking Friday
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-spain-deputy-governor-speaking-friday-20240621/
Tune in Monday for the Bank of Japan Summary of its June meeting
MAIN BONDS DUE
None
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Putin signs deals with Vietnam in bid to shore up ties in Asia to offset Moscow’s growing isolation
President Putin’s visit shows Russia still matters a lot to Vietnam
Japan and South Korea sound alarm over Putin-Kim military pact
https://www.ft.com/content/f79bf945-0ad6-4a99-96e1-588a026475f4
Putin says Russia may supply high-precision weapons to North Korea
https://www.ft.com/content/0b1d99dd-ee3e-4686-858b-0d570198103d
Russia’s Putin ‘does not rule out’ sending weapons to North Korea, US ‘incredibly’ concerned
What Russia’s Military Deal With North Korea Means for the World
Putin’s Hybrid War Opens Second Front on Russia’s Border With NATO
Putin Reiterates He Is 'Considering Changes To Nuclear Doctrine'
https://marketnews.com/putin-reiterates-he-is-considering-changes-to-nuclear-doctrine
Putin says Russia may change its nuclear doctrine, warns South Korea not to aid Ukraine
How Russia is using nuclear power to win global influence
https://www.ft.com/content/7110fc18-5a31-4387-9f4c-0cc5753d050a
US Pauses All Patriot Shipments To Other Countries, Will Redirect To Ukraine
Ukraine Drone Strikes Score Direct Hits On Two More Russian Oil Depots
Russian court orders Commerzbank assets be awarded to pipeline firm
ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST
Israeli leader at odds with military over war with Hamas
https://www.ft.com/content/3de8644e-084d-4e23-91a9-b27fb7f3f554
Israeli Military Says Hamas Can’t Be Destroyed, Escalating Feud With Netanyahu
Israel and Hizbollah’s dangerous slide towards all-out war
https://www.ft.com/content/ba23210b-3254-4051-a23f-f1b1e06498f4
US Ready To Back Israel Against Hezbollah If Diplomacy Fails
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-ready-back-israel-against-hezbollah-if-diplomacy-fails
Fewer Than Half Of The Hostages In Gaza Still Alive, US Intel Believes
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fewer-half-hostages-gaza-still-alive-us-intel-believes
Iran’s reformist candidate jolts presidential race with nuclear pitch
https://www.ft.com/content/8c57562b-834e-4c52-b9dd-3a0c13ade800
WORLD GEOPOLITICS
U.S. and China hold first informal nuclear talks in 5 years: Reuters
Low chance of China-Russia military teamwork leading to direct attack on US: Rand report
Russia, China find payments workaround as US sanctions net widens, sources say
Dutch PM Mark Rutte set to be next NATO leader
More Asian Nations Want to Join Putin and Xi in Expanded BRICS
US lawmakers meeting Modi after Dalai Lama signals New Delhi shift on China: analysts
China says Philippines rammed Chinese boats, attacked personnel in Second Thomas Shoal stand-off
Filipino Soldiers Fought Off Axe-Wielding Chinese Coast Guard 'With Bare Hands'
Philippines secretly reinforces ship at centre of South China Sea dispute
https://www.ft.com/content/2d5751da-9588-406a-b5db-39b7911a429d
North Korean soldiers crossed into South Korea again, the third time this month (so far)
Canada Prepares Potential Tariffs on China Electric Vehicles After US, EU Moves
Beijing urged to hit European petrol cars with 'most severe' tariffs
"Bank of America tells Detroit’s Big 3 they can’t make money in China and should just leave the hypercompetitive car market ‘as soon as they possibly can’"
http://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2024/06/bank-of-america-tells-detroits-big-3.html
What the EU’s extra tariffs on China’s electric vehicles mean for carmakers in both markets
The strange case of EU tariffs on Chinese EVs
https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-strange-case-of-eu-tariffs-on-chinese-evs
China’s EV Makers Got $231 Billion in Subsidies, Aid Over Last 15 Years
Chinese chip makers ramp up capacity amid fears of more US sanctions
Billionaires Pony Up Huge Donations for Trump, Biden
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/billionaires-pony-up-huge-donations-for-trump-biden-f8f0a752
GLOBAL/GENERAL
Markets ignore the internal politics of central banks at their peril
https://www.ft.com/content/4e5734d4-a0f5-4f3b-8c08-44c80e8319ce
Birth rates in rich countries halve to hit record low
https://www.ft.com/content/f0d2a5a7-e5ef-4044-8380-ff690b609a5a
Higher earners face greater AI exposure, study finds
https://www.ft.com/content/c7274c28-92e2-479f-b7a4-0b46e4896631
EUROPE
ECB's Knot: Optimal policy path is broadly in line with just under three rate cuts in 2024
Eurozone June consumer confidence (flash) -14.0 vs. -13.6 expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-june-consumer-confidence-flash-140-vs-136-expected-20240620/
Europe Has a New Economic Engine: American Tourists
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europe-tourism-economy-american-tourists-f6112f78
France election poll: National Rally leading, Macron lags behind
Le Pen Party Holds on to Lead in French Vote, Harris Poll Shows
French Bonds Face Big Test Since Macron’s Shock Election Call
France Election: Macron Opponents Face Hostility From Business Chiefs
The man with a mission to save Emmanuel Macron’s movement
https://www.ft.com/content/848b9756-df8e-42b7-adf2-cc594be56846
"Germany Has 1 Year to Replace Olaf Scholz"
http://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2024/06/germany-has-1-year-to-replace-olaf.html
SNB Unexpectedly Cuts Rates Again As Swiss Inflation Continues To Ease
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/snb-unexpectedly-cuts-rates-again-swiss-inflation-continues-ease
SNB Cuts Rate Again to Aid Economy and Stem Gains in Franc
Norway May Hold Off on Rate Cut This Year to Cool Economy
NORGES WATCH: On Hold, Tilts Against 2024 Cut
https://marketnews.com/mni-norges-watch-on-hold-tilts-against-2024-cut
UK
Bank of England holds rates at 5.25% in ‘finely balanced’ decision
https://www.ft.com/content/1c7beb93-4809-407d-bc85-7e320287a1d6
BOE Interest Rate Cut: Traders Bet on August Cut
Bank accused of 'political decision' to hold interest rates
BOE Rate-Cut Signal Poised to Hand ‘Feel-Good Factor’ to Starmer
Why we can’t be sure of the size of the Labour swing
https://www.ft.com/content/d2b99457-6ee6-4546-b780-619e8ed810e6
Disenchantment with the Tories spreads to Rishi Sunak’s own seat
https://www.ft.com/content/21ca3e22-8c20-45c4-a7ad-6d1a05f8c58b
Rishi Sunak warns that Keir Starmer is promising ‘same fantasies’ as Liz Truss
https://www.ft.com/content/52f98070-ce5b-4378-87ba-0149e5be19e5
Unusual burst of bets preceded Rishi Sunak’s election announcement
https://www.ft.com/content/1cc50124-e19c-481d-bd91-fdecb3d64528
Tory election campaign director on ‘leave’ after gambling probe
https://www.ft.com/content/351db92a-9ee3-4516-a5e5-5c901ba0e9a3
‘Every Tory I know is angry’: betting scandal sends election campaign into ‘freefall’
https://www.ft.com/content/9e69fde4-0e9b-41c0-b4a6-238c9784f3ab
University sector calls on Labour to raise tuition fees to ‘stabilise the ship’
https://www.ft.com/content/fd1e1942-a349-4ffd-95c6-cba836a36d34
Staff shortages undermine manifesto plans to boost childcare in England
https://www.ft.com/content/d868c752-c09d-410b-b5ad-a9c6d5d2e5e5
Britain's birth rate halves as wealthy countries face 'low fertility future’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/20/birth-rates-britain-halve-low-fertility-future/
It’s time to reset EU-UK relations
https://www.ft.com/content/4a28bc4a-a832-450d-b879-493372341a29
US urges Britain to pick a date for stock market shake up
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-urges-britain-pick-date-stock-market-shake-up-2024-06-20/
US
Yellen spoke Thursday on inflation, China tariffs |
https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-yellen-spoke-thursday-on-inflation-china-tariffs-20240620/
Fed's Barkin says wants clearer signals on falling inflation before a rate cut
Ex-Fed Bullard says he expects a slow pace of rate cuts from the FOMC
Bullard Says Latest US CPI Sparks Hope of September Rate Cut
White House's Brainard: There is every reason to expect further inflation progress
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 238,000
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_20.html
Unemployment Claims Down 5K, Worse Than Expected
Jobless claims stay near 10-month high. End of school year might be the reason
Continuing Jobless Claims Keep Rising, California Initial Claims Crash
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Steady Activity in June
Philly Fed 'Hope' Hammered As Inflation Expectations Soar
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/philly-fed-hope-hammered-inflation-expectations-soar
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Falls to Lowest Level of the Year
US Housing Starts & Building Permits Plunge To COVID Lockdown Lows
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-housing-starts-building-permits-plunge-covid-lockdown-lows
Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3.0% vs 3.1% prior
https://www.forexlive.com/news/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-30-vs-31-prior-20240620/
After A Year In "Recovery", The Economy Is Once Again Contracting
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/after-year-recovery-economy-once-again-contracting
Multi-Family Housing Glut?
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/shaky-housing-foundations/
JP Morgan says covering of shorts, less short selling, helpful in fueling higher equities
Bull Market Signposts: What Happens Before S&P 500 Peaks?
https://ritholtz.com/2024/06/bull-market-signposts-what-happens-before-sp-500-peaks/
Friday's US Options Expiration Could Kick VIX Index Higher
Russell 2000 Earnings Dashboard 24Q1
https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2024/06/russell-2000-earnings-dashboard-24q1-june-20-2024/
CANADA
Canadian consumer spending dropped in May -- RBC
https://www.forexlive.com/news/canadian-consumer-spending-dropped-in-may-rbc-20240620/
CHINA
China’s third plenum: few ‘bold’ moves in store but analysts watch for structural reforms
China's key plenum aims to fix decades-old tax revenue imbalance
Xi’s Mystery PBOC Plans Surface With Biggest Shift in Years
JAPAN
Japan data - May CPI Headline 2.8% y/y vs. 2.9% expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-data-may-cpi-headline-28-yy-vs-29-expected-20240620/
Japan preliminary manufacturing PMI for June 50.1 (prior 50.4 in May)
Yen’s Six-Day Decline Highlights Risk of Japan Intervention
Japan's Kanda says ready to take action if excessive FX move seen
Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says stable FX levels are desirable
Yen Hangs Firmly in Crosshairs of Intervention Despite Watchlist Warning
BOJ Tankan To Show Sentiment Little Changed; Solid Capex
https://marketnews.com/mni-boj-tankan-to-show-sentiment-little-changed-solid-capex
Japan will resume subsidies for utilites and continue with gasoline subsidies
AUSTRALIA
Australia preliminary June PMI: Manufacturing 47.5 (prior 49.7) Services 51.0 (prior 52.5)
GLOBAL SECTORS
AUTO’S
EU May New Car Registrations Slip as Most Carmakers Post Declines; EV Sales Fall
BANKS + FINANCIALS
Money-Market Funds See First Outflow in Two Months With Taxes Due
US regulators at odds over whether to issue new draft of bank capital hikes
US big banks face growing spillover risks from non-banks
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-big-banks-face-growing-spillover-risks-non-banks-2024-06-20/
US regulators reject Citi's 'living will' resolution plan, FT reports
Citi bets on Europe despite political uncertainty, regional CEO says
Threat of deposit exodus haunts Japan’s regional banks
https://www.ft.com/content/0d550c0d-ba97-4b75-9e78-7ba7a7525024
EU banks see jump in problem loans to small companies, EU banking watchdog says
Spanish court wants BBVA and former chairman to face trial in spying case
TMT
Nvidia’s stock turns sharply lower with a $230 billion swing in market cap
Bearish Nvidia option bets spike as stock sees record-breaking reversal
METALS
Gold climbs more than $30
https://www.forexlive.com/news/gold-climbs-more-than-30-20240620/
Gold and silver futures poised to settle at their highest in two weeks
Thailand Joins China In Driving Gold Bull Market
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/thailand-joins-china-driving-gold-bull-market
OIL + GAS
WTI Extends Gains After Surprise Crude Inventory Draw; Pump-Prices Set To Soar
EIA weekly crude oil inventories -2547K vs -2200K expected
https://www.forexlive.com/news/eia-weekly-crude-oil-inventories-2547k-vs-2200k-expected-20240620/
CRYPTO
Ether Restaking May Morph Into ‘Internet Bond’ Market, S&P Says